Wright, Wyoming Weather Forecast Discussion

778
FXUS63 KUNR 282348
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
548 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions with above average temperatures through Thursday.
- Elevated fire weather conditions possible throughout the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Ensemble guidance (GEFS/ECMWF) supports the evolution of the
upper ridge eastward across the northern Plains and into the
Midwest through Monday, with a thermal ridge building over the
region. Models have shifted toward keeping this ridge over our
area through much of week allowing for the continuation of dry
conditions and near to above normal temperatures to persist for
much of the upcoming week. There is a very low end chance for some
high-based convection to develop along the Black Hills but
confidence is very low so again did not mention PoPs in this
forecast update.
Taking a long into the long term forecast, models eventually kick
out the ridge and bring in the long wave trough into the region.
This will still depend on what occurs on the east coast with the
tropical systems. At this time we will bring back cooler and
active weather into the forecast for next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued At 545 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Isolated showers/thunderstorms will persist across NE WY/northern
Black Hills through the first part of this evening. Then quieter
weather is expected for the much of the forecast period. Isolated
storms may return to NE WY/northern Black Hills late Monday
afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 128 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible for much of
next week as dry conditions will continue across much of the
region. Minimum relative humidity values for much of the week will
range between 20-30% across the Black Hills and eastern Wyoming.
The limiting factor for a higher fire condition will be the light
southerly winds that may occasionally gust up to 25 mph
throughout the week.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Woodward
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...Woodward

NWS UNR Office Area Forecast Discussion