Winston, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

533
FXUS64 KEPZ 040418
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1018 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1015 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
- Warm and dry weather into early next week. High temperatures
   around 5-7 degrees above normal through Tuesday.
- Breezy conditions Saturday.
- Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the middle part of
   next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1015 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Late summer-like temperatures continue this early October as a
ridge of high pressure persists over northern Mexico, while a
Pacific trough moves inland over the Great Basin by Saturday.
These two features are working in tandem to draw up mostly warm
and dry air with southwest flow aloft. Thus unseasonably warm
temperatures will continue through the weekend into early next
week. As models have been showing, this broad southwest flow was
able to draw high level moisture (above 400mb) from TS Octave over
eastern Arizona and western New Mexico today. It did allow CU
buildups today over southwest New Mexico but appears no rain was
able to develop from these clouds. This thin, tropical plume will
continue east overnight, reaching the eastern CWA Saturday
afternoon. Again, this likely will help some CU development but
rain is expected. The southwest flow aloft will help create decent
lee-side low eastern Colorado, allowing breezy winds to develop
Saturday afternoon.
Broad southwest flow aloft will continue into Monday. Expect more
dry weather Sunday/Monday with high temps continuing around 5-7
degrees above normal. By late Monday and moreso on Tuesday, the
influence of tropical feature Priscilla will begin to be felt over
our area. While she will contribute little, if any moisture
initially, she is able build up sub-tropical ridge from the
northern Gulf of America across northern Mexico. This will allow
some sub-tropical moisture over northern Mexico and even the Gulf
of America, to advect in as mid-level flow turns more
south/southwest. Thus chances of rain will start again in the
forecast, if not Monday night, then Tuesday and Wednesday. GFS and
ECMWF are pretty similar through Thursday, though the ECMWF does
not advect as much moisture up. Both models show upper ridge
building over/near the CWA Thursday through Saturday for drier
weather.
If you want to look way out, the GFS is advertising a sort of
"monsoon renaissance" as days 9-10 show more tropical moisture
streaming up with what would be tropical feature Raymond.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1015 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Generally VFR through the period. SKC with SCT-BKN100 over higher
terrain and west of the Cont Divide. Isolated BKN080CB -SHRA/-TSRA
west of the Cont Divide until around 06Z. South/southeast winds
8-12G18 knots until 03Z, then variable AOB 7 knots. After
18Z,mostly east of the Rio Grande Valley...SCT100 SCT-BKN250
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Low end fire danger expected tomorrow afternoon due to breezy
conditions (20 foot winds 10-17 mph) combined with min RHs of 18-24%
(lowlands). Very similar min RHs expected Sunday afternoon but 20
foot wind speeds will be lowered (generally 5-10 mph but isolated
locations could see 15 mph winds over the eastern portions of the
Black Range. Min RHs will be 20-30% in the lowlands and 40-50% in
the mountains Monday with dry conditions and light afternoon
breezes. Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday which increases
min RHs both days to 25-35% in the lowlands and 50-65% in the
mountains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  91  67  90  67 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            85  58  86  59 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               86  57  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               86  60  85  61 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               63  45  63  45 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    85  54  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              79  50  77  52 /  10  10   0   0
Deming                   89  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                85  55  83  56 /  20  10   0   0
West El Paso Metro       88  66  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                88  60  88  62 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             92  65  91  67 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               81  60  80  61 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                   91  65  89  65 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             87  62  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           87  63  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            86  58  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    89  55  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 89  59  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                85  59  84  60 /   0   0   0  10
Mayhill                  74  49  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                76  49  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 73  47  72  49 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                  77  43  76  45 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                84  52  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                85  54  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             79  45  77  46 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                   82  50  80  51 /  10  10   0   0
Cliff                    85  52  83  52 /  10  10   0   0
Mule Creek               80  48  78  48 /  10  20   0   0
Faywood                  81  52  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   86  54  84  55 /  20  10   0   0
Hachita                  86  55  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           86  55  85  56 /  10  10   0   0
Cloverdale               80  53  78  54 /  10  10   0   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion