Winifred, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

287
FXUS63 KJKL 011125 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
725 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and seasonably warm conditions persist into early next
  week.
- Valley fog is likely to develop each night this week in the
  deeper river valleys of eastern Kentucky.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky between dry high pressure
to the north and low pressure centered off the southeast coast as
Hurricane Imelda starts to pull away from the coast. This is
keeping the winds light and skies clear this night - though some
leftover clouds are exiting far southeast parts of the area.
Outside of those clouds, these conditions favored decent
radiational cooling for the night and a resulting ridge to valley
temperature divide throughout eastern Kentucky - while also
allowing for areas of dense fog in the river valleys.
Specifically, temperatures vary from the mid to upper 50s in
some of the low, sheltered spots to the lower 60s on many thermal
belt, hilltop locations. Meanwhile, dewpoints are running in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, most places.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in
excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict the ridging of a weakening 5h omega
block slipping southeast into Kentucky today. This will shove any
mid level energy south of the area - retreating as the troughing
shifts southeast. Into Thursday, ridging will be centered above
the Ohio Valley peaking over eastern Kentucky into the evening.
The very small model spread during the short term portion of the
forecast continues to support using the NBM as the starting point
of the grids with minimal adjustments needed - mainly just to
include terrain based enhancements for temperatures at night.
Sensible weather features pleasantly warm and dry days with
temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s for highs in most places,
thanks to plenty of sunshine. Expect mostly clear conditions
tonight with valley fog again developing - becoming locally dense.
Look for the dry and warm weather to be the rule through Thursday
as sfc high pressure builds to the east of the state.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
adjusting temperatures tonight for terrain based details along
with tweaking the afternoon dewpoints and RH a tad lower.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
The main changes to the extended forecast this morning were to
enhance the terrain based differences of a ridge to valley split
for temperatures each night through next weekend. The PoPs still
are looking quite limited during the rest of the work week and
over the weekend.
The previous long term discussion follows:
The period is expected to begin with an upper level trough
extending into the Southeast Conus and portions of the Gulf while
an upper level ridge is progged to be in place across the OH and
TN Valleys and into the Appalachians, eastern Great Lakes, and Mid
Atlantic States. A shortwave trough is expected to extend from
the Upper MS Valley toward the Ozarks while another upper ridge
should be centered over NM and extend into Parts of the Southern
Plains as well as Southern Rockies to Central Plains. Further
west, the axis of an upper level trough should extend south west
of the west coast of the COnus from an upper low nearing the BC
coast and the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, the period
should begin with a sfc high centered over Quebec/St Lawrence
Valley and extending southwest toward the mid MS Valley and down
the eastern seaboard while weak inverted troughing should extend
from LA and into the Commonwealth.
From Thursday to Friday night, upper level ridging per the
consensus of guidance should become centered form the OH Valley
to the mid Atlantic coast while weak upper troughing remains over
parts of the Southeast to the central and eastern Gulf with a
stronger upper ridge extending from Mexico into the Southern
Plains to mid MS Valley region. Further west, the upper trough
should move into and across portions of the western Conus and
reach the Northern Rockies to Great Basin to AZ by late Friday
night. By late Friday night, a weak upper low may develop over the
Lower MS Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, the sfc ridge should become
centered further south over the mid Atlantic states into the
Southern Appalachians. For eastern KY, this scenario will favor
dry and mild weather with temperatures a few degrees above normal.
Valley fog, perhaps areas of fog, especially along rivers, larger
creeks, and area lakes should be a fixture each night through a
couple of hours after sunrise each day.
Saturday to Sunday night, upper level ridging is expected
initially to extend from the Atlantic into VA and Carolinas to OH
Valley while an upper level low is expected in the Lower MS
Valley to western Gulf areas while an upper level trough spreads
from the western Conus into parts of the Central to Northern
Plains. The weak upper level low should meander over the Northern
Gulf to Lower MS Valley vicinity while the axis of upper level
ridging should become centered east of the coast of the
Carolinas. The 12Z ECMWF operational run maintains a stronger
ridge and higher heights into eastern KY as compared to the most
recent GFS operational run while both also bring an upper level
trough into the upper MS Valley that nears the Great Lakes. This
leads to differences in how quickly moisture returns into eastern
KY. More recent GFS would support enough moisture return for a
few showers possibly encroaching the TN border to VA border
counties Sunday night. Either scenario favors above normal
temperatures continuing into the weekend and dry weather for most
of if not all the weekend. Valley fog, especially along rivers,
larger creeks, and area lakes should be a fixture each night
through a couple of hours after sunrise each day. For now
maintained the NBM pops that remained 10 percent or lower even
into Sunday night and generally reflect the ECMWF runs more
closely.
Monday and Tuesday, guidance generally has a series of shortwave
troughs moving from the Plains across the Great Lakes to the St
Lawrence Valley with a corresponding sfc frontal zone that
gradually moves toward the Northeast, across the Great Lakes, and
into the OH Valley. Guidance generally keeps an upper low over
the western Gulf to Lower MS Valley vicinity to begin the week,
but the GFS runs maintain deeper moisture and more moisture return
across eastern KY into Monday compared to the ECMWF. That would
support some shower chances Monday especially over the south
while the ECMWF is drier has more of an increase in moisture and
better chances for showers as the front nears later Monday night
and Tuesday. For now have maintained the isolated to scattered
pops of the NBM from late Monday night into Tuesday which are more
toward the ECMWF end of the guidance. Temperatures are expected
to continue to remain above normal ahead of the front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2025
Once the morning fog clears this morning, VFR conditions will
hold throughout the period at the TAF sites - though some valley
fog may affect some of the terminals early Thursday morning, as
well. Winds will remain variable to northeasterly at under 10 kts
through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JP/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion