Wilmington, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

679
FXUS62 KILM 021949
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
349 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered north of the area will bring a breezy but
largely seasonable period for the remainder of the week and
weekend. Only minor rain chances return much of next week as
moisture tries to overrun this high from the south.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows high pressure over the New England
coast, which has reached all the way down into the Carolinas. This
high has brought cool Canadian air with it, allowing for our first
lovely fall air of the season. After lows in the 50s this morning,
we have gone up into the mid 70s this afternoon.
This high pressure will push a little more offshore and then slide
down the mid-Atlantic coast through Friday. Inland areas may be even
a bit cooler for tonight`s lows than the night before. Some parts of
the Pee Dee region may even bottom out in the upper 40s, though this
doesn`t look likely, as I believe enough boundary layer winds keep
the radiational cooling in check.
Subtle airmass modification starts Friday afternoon, with highs
about 2-3 degrees warmer than what we`ve seen today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A large area of high pressure will be centered off the Delmarva
through the period. Ridging in the mid to upper levels will also be
close to the area, generally centered north of it. This will bring a
breezy period of sunshine and normal temperatures save for a milder
Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging both surface and aloft starts to slide offshore Sunday into
Monday. This will lead to two main sources of increased rain
chances; low level moisture advection and the decreased downward
vertical motion association with the mid level ridge. Models are
usually a bit too fast in such a moisture  return scenario, likely
meaning rain holds off until Monday and may be confined to SC over
NC-the latest blended guidance seems to agree.  Much of next week
will have high temperatures that are only a few degrees above
climatology whereas nighttime lows will be more significantly
elevated. The more legit rain chances may come late in the period as
a cold front and upper trough approach from the northwest.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High confidence in VFR for the 18Z TAF period. Gusty
northeasterly winds at 18-21 kts continue this afternoon, but
should calm inland by sunset this evening. Coastal terminals may
still have gusts of 16- 18 kts throughout the night, increasing
slightly to 18-20 kts by late Friday morning.
Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to prevail. May have
some patchy fog over the weekend and into early next week with rain
chances returning at the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Friday...Small Craft Advisory continues along all coastal
waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm. Stiff
northeasterly winds at 20-22 kts decrease slightly to 17-19 kts
Friday, with gusts of 25-30 kts following a similar trend to dipping
below 25 kts. Seas at 4-5 ft at the coast. Seas up to 20 nm from
shore are 6-8 ft at first, but relax slightly to 6 ft.
Friday night through Tuesday...Advisory flags will still be up
at the start of the period. Even though wave bulletins show
dominant period dropping to 7 ft (i.e., the tropical swells
have abated), the long fetch of NE winds will still be piling
up enough water for 6 ft seas especially well away from shore.
Over the weekend, the NE flow will turn slightly to the E as
high pressure to our north finds a center slightly E of the cold
location. Locally, this won`t be very effective in reducing
conditions below thresholds, as this may have to wait until
early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for east-
facing beaches through this evening. Remnants of Imelda and Humberto
swell will intertwine along with the addition of large short period
wind waves resulting from strong NE winds as synoptic high pressure
ridges across the area from the north. The strong NE wind driven
waves will continue through the end of the work week while the 2
remnants of tropical cyclone swell trains slowly subside.
Minor coastal flooding during this evening`s high tide cycle
expected along coastal Pender, New Hanover, and Brunswick Counties,
in addition to the lower Cape Fear River at downtown Wilmington.
This is expected to occur over the next few late afternoon/early
evening high tide cycles. The coastal SC counties may need similar
advisories by the weekend, but we`re not there just yet.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...IGB/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IGB

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion