Wilmington Island, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

076
FXUS62 KCHS 191758
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
158 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through the middle of next week,
then a cold front may approach the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The mid-levels will consist of weak troughing over the
Southeast U.S. Weak impulses should round the base of the trough
and move over our area into this evening, generating some lift.
There will be a weak surface trough across the Southeast U.S.
into this evening, with it dissipating overnight. Temperatures
peaking in the mid 80s to lower 90s are generating some
instability. There is some moisture in place, generally in the
form of dew points in the 60s inland and higher closer to the
coast. Therefore, radar has isolated to scattered convection
across our area this afternoon. The CAMS and deterministic
models point to it continuing until around sunset, then quickly
dissipating. Though, the NBM is the driest of the bunch. Either
way, the overnight should be dry. The combination of mostly
clear skies and very light to calm winds could lead to shallow
ground fog late tonight until sunrise Saturday. Overnight lows
will range from the mid 60s far inland to the lower 70s at/near
the beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry high pressure will remain centered north of the region
through Monday. A weak coastal trough will develop along the GA
coast on Monday, with the potential for enough moisture and
forcing to support a few showers or thunderstorms in coastal
southeast GA during the afternoon. Highs each day will be
relatively warm in the mid to upper 80s, except low 90s across
far inland areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper trough will gradually approach the area from the west
during the middle of next week, with a low pressure system
possibly moving into the Southeast mid to late week. A cold
front could move into the area Thursday or Friday, bringing the
next significant chance for rain.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z TAFs: Radar indicates isolated convection developing across
our area this afternoon. It`s expected to persist until sunset,
then quickly dissipate. The probabilities of direct impacts to
our TAF sites is too low to warrant mention in these TAFs.
However, if radar trends point to a direct impact that`ll cause
flight restrictions, then we`ll amend. Otherwise, VFR should
prevail through the first half of the night. Late tonight, MOS
and the ensembles point to radiational fog forming and causing
at least visibility reductions. We have MVFR in the TAFs for a
few hours, but wouldn`t be surprised if it needs to be lowered
to IFR with future TAFs. Any flight restrictions should quickly
dissipate Saturday morning.
Extended Aviation Forecast: VFR through Sunday. MVFR ceilings
possible around daybreak Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tonight: The local sea breeze influences along the
land/sea interface and across the Charleston Harbor will
persist until sunset, then dissipate. Then, onshore winds in the
evening are expected to shift to the NE overnight, remaining in
the sustained 5-10 kt range. Seas will average 2-3 ft.
Saturday through Tuesday: Expect an increasing northeast
gradient Saturday and Sunday as a wedge of high pressure builds
inland and a trough of low pressure forms over the eastern
Atlantic waters. Conditions are expected to remain just below
advisory levels, with winds generally 15-20 knots, with some
gusts near 25 knots possible. Seas generally 3 to 5 feet.
Monday and Tuesday, winds weaken and eventually turn SE.
Rip Currents: Increasing risk for rip currents expected into
this weekend as gusty northeast winds develop between strong
high pressure inland, and coastal troughing offshore. Increasing
swell from the southeast will also favor a Moderate Risk of rip
currents along Georgia beaches by Saturday. Moderate risk
forecast for all beaches on Sunday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong northeasterly winds are expected to create larger tidal
departures this weekend, which could result in tide levels
approaching 7 ft MLLW (minor) in Charleston Harbor starting
with the Saturday evening high tide cycle. The risk for minor
coastal flooding should continue into early next week. Coastal
Flood Advisories could eventually be needed for minor saltwater
flooding in Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion