White Plains, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

494
FXUS61 KAKQ 291905
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
305 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to track north off the Southeast
coast today before becoming a hurricane as it turns out to sea
on Tuesday. Light rain well north of the systems overspreads the
local area today into Tuesday. However, only light rainfall
total are now expected. High pressure builds in from mid to late
week with cooler and drier weather returning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...
Key Message:
- Light rain/drizzle and cloudy conditions across the area this
  evening and overnight
Mid-day analysis shows a stationary boundary along the coast.
Behind the front, stable and cool air is in place with clouds
overspreading the area as TS Imelda slowly moves north off the
coast of Florida. Temperatures this afternoon are in the mid 70s
High pressure will continue to move out of the north and toward
the area this evening. As Imelda moves north, some low level
moisture makes its way into the area. Rain will be most
widespread across western portions of the area, with some areas
receiving between .1 and .25" of rain. There could be a heavier
shower or two that could lead to higher localized totals. While
to the east QPF totals are generally less than .1". Through the
night, showers will continue across the southwest but will
start to dwindle as TS Imelda starts to make her turn east and
the high out of Canada starts to move in place. Lows tonight
will be in the low to middle 60s inland and upper 60s along the
coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Breezy conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday,
  especially along the coast where gusts up to around 30 mph are
  possible Tuesday and 35 to 40 mph Wednesday.
Strong sfc high pressure will move out of Canada early Tuesday,
while TS-Imelda (well south of the FA) turns east and will be
pushed out to sea. May see a few lingering showers in the
morning, then drying out in the afternoon as the high fills in
and pushes the stationary boundary further offshore. The
pressure gradient will tighten along the coast between the high
to the north and the tropical systems offshore. This will allow
for breezy to windy conditions to form. Inland areas could see
15 to 20 mph wind gusts, while along the coast winds gusts are
expected to be as high as 30mph. Highs for Tuesday will be in
the mid 70s. A bit cooler Wed, especially in the NE due to a
surge of CAA as the high builds further. Highs will be in the
low- mid 70s W of the bay and around 70 on the Eastern Shore.
Winds are expected to peak Wed when the pressure gradient is
tightest combined with the CAA. Inland wind gusts are forecast
to be between 20 to 25mph, 30-45mph in the east. Immediate
coastal areas could see gusts as high as 40mph. A lot cooler
Wed night with lows in the mid 40a in the piedmont and in the
50s to the east.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Typical Fall conditions are expected by the end of the week
  followed by a warming trend going into the weekend.
Looking like a decent end of week and weekend period overall.
High pressure remains stationed over the area through the end of
the week and into the weekend, the center pushing south from
New England to the Mid-Atlantic. Aloft, an amplified ridge
gradually slides in over the East Coast. This lines up with
gradually warming temperatures expected. Highs on Thurs and Fri
will be on either side of 70, Mid 70s on Saturday, then upper
70s on Sunday. Overnight lows Thurs and Fri night range between
the mid to upper 40s inland to the around 60 at the coast. A
bit milder Sat and Sun night with lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...
Overcast skies persist across all the terminals this afternoon
as tropical moisture streams northward away from TS Imelda
along a stationary front. Spotty light showers are spread across
much of the area, primarily inland and across northern
counties. Expecting rain to taper off this evening, but not
totally drying out until tomorrow. At the terminals, VFR
prevails at RIC, SBY, and PHF. ORF and ECG are seeing MVFR cigs
this afternoon, likely due to being closer to the front that is
just offshore. MVFR/IFR CIGs will mostly stay confined to the SE
through this evening and into the overnight hours before
spreading to RIC late tonight. So far it looks like SBY will
remain VFR. NE winds persist through the period, becoming gusty
at the coast tomorrow afternoon.
Outlook: Periods of sub-VFR conditions continue through Tuesday.
VFR conditions then return Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- SCAs have been issued starting later today and tonight for the
lower Chesapeake Bay, Currituck Sound, and Atlantic coastal waters.
SCAs for the remainder of the local waters go into effect on Tuesday.
- Deteriorating conditions and increasing NE winds are expected,
with the strongest winds expected Tuesday night through Wednesday,
primarily due to a strong pressure gradient N  of the region as
Humberto and Imelda move well offshore. Gale Warnings have been
issued for the ocean, and Gale Watches remain in effect for the
Lower Bay and Currituck Sound.
- Follow the latest information from the National Hurricane Center
regarding the progress of Humberto and Imelda.
Tropical Storm Imelda is slowly moving N (and is now N of the
Bahamas), with Major Hurricane Humberto well offshore. Weak high
pressure is centered from the Great Lakes to New England this
afternoon, with NE winds around 10-15 kt over the waters and 3-4 ft
seas/2 ft waves. Humberto will send increasingly strong long-period
swell toward the local waters through midweek, with the local area
still progged to see 6-8 foot long period southeasterly swell by
Tuesday.
NE winds increase to 15-20 kt by tonight as Imelda slowly moves
north and strong, ~1032 mb high pressure builds over Ontario. Marine
conditions then deteriorate on Tuesday and especially Tuesday
evening-Tuesday night as the strong high builds south toward the
area and Humberto/Imelda curve out to sea/move toward Bermuda. The
gradient between these two features (along with a push of CAA) will
allow winds to increase to 25-30 kt on the ocean (w/ 35-40 kt gusts)
and around 25 kt on the bay (with 30-35 kt gusts...highest in the
Lower Bay) by 10 PM-2 AM Tue night/Wed AM. Have upgraded all Gale
Watches to Gale Warnings for the ocean (with a start time of 10 PM
Tuesday going through 6 PM Wednesday) as local wind probs for 34 kt
gusts are in the 60-90% range for a decent portion of this period.
Will keep Gale Watches for the Lower Ches Bay/Currituck Sound. Have
dragged back the start time of the Gale Watches to 2 AM Wed (and
they run through 6 PM Wed. Local wind probs for 34 kt gusts Wed
morning-aftn have dropped a bit on the lower bay (to 10-40%), but
did not want to convert to SCAs yet since it is still 36 hours out
from the onset of potential gale gusts. 35-40 kt gusts continue on
the ocean for much of Wed before winds diminish to ~25 kt with 30 kt
gusts Wed evening. Solid SCA conditions with NE winds then persist
through Thu AM before winds gradually diminish later Thu through Fri
as the high slowly builds into the area. Seas are expected to build
to 10-13 ft S and 8-12 ft N by Wed, with waves in the Bay 3-5 ft N
and 5-6 ft S (6-7 ft at the mouth of the Bay). SCA headlines are in
effect for all zones starting today/tomorrow and continue through 6
PM Wed for the upper rivers and at least Wed night for the upper
bay/lower James (where Gale Watches are not in effect). Also, High
Surf Advisories have been issued for all beaches from Tue
aftn/evening-6 AM Thu. Note that seas will be very slow to subside
even as winds diminish, so SCA headlines for elevated seas are
expected to be needed into the upcoming weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...
Tidal departures remain minimal with no coastal flooding expected
through Tuesday. After that, expect anomalies to steadily increase
by ~1.5 ft Tuesday night and Wednesday, highest across the lower Bay
due to the combination of strong NE winds and increasing seas (due
to both wind waves and swell).
The latest ETSS continues to show a high likelihood of at least
minor coastal flooding Wed/Thu for most tidal sites, with the
highest water levels occurring during the Wed aftn/evening high tide
cycle in the middle/lower bay and ocean (with higher levels in the
upper bay on Thu). Note that the highest anomalies are expected to
be in the lower bay/tidal James. Not much change in the tide
forecast from the overnight package. The latest forecast has most
sites cresting well into minor flood thresholds, with Lynnhaven and
Jamestown having the best chance to exceed moderate thresholds by a
tenth or two Wednesday aftn/evening. Mainly minor flooding is then
expected across most areas Wed night and Thu (though Bishop`s Head
may get close to moderate on Thu). It is too early for coastal flood
headlines since the potential flooding is ~48 hours out and
confidence in solid moderate flooding (enough to warrant a Coastal
Flood Watch) is low.
At Sewells Point, the 50th percentile value per ETSS for the Wed
evening tide is right around 5 ft, with the 90th percentile value
right at the Moderate flood threshold of 5.5 ft MLLW. At Jamestown,
50th percentile Wednesday night on ETSS is at 4.5 ft, or right at
the Moderate flood threshold, with the 90th percentile near the
major flood threshold of 5.0 ft. As such, will continue to monitor
trends over the next 24 hours and it is certainly possible that a
localized warning or two may be needed in the lower bay/tidal
James.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...High Surf Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for
     MDZ025.
NC...High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for
     NCZ102.
VA...High Surf Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for
     VAZ099-100.
     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for
     VAZ098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634.
     Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon
     for ANZ632>634.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HET/RMM
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion