Wheeler, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

637
FXUS63 KGLD 262326
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
526 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- South winds gusting 30-45 mph are forecast to return Sunday
  into Monday. There is a 20% chance of wind gusts to 58 mph
  both days over east-central Colorado.
- There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms returning
  early next work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
500mb heights, analyzed around 5820m via RAP mesoanalysis, will
continue to lower (12h height change is roughly -30m) through
the afternoon and evening with the approach of a positively-
tiled, elongated upper trough. Ahead of that trough axis, upper
level divergence observed over the Colorado Rockies is helping
to facilitate lee cyclogenesis, resulting in (southerly) warm
advection which has culminated in afternoon temperatures in the
low to mid 80s.
A cold front dropping south out of Nebraska tonight will result
in a wind shift and uptick in speeds. Gusts should be
suppressed somewhat by the unfavorable diurnal arrival time when
mixing depth is low, however subsidence right behind the front
may tap into the 35 kt 850mb winds to result in some gusts to
nearly 30 mph (75th percentile of HREF). (Precipitation chances
are minuscule with that front due to limited moisture return
ahead of it.) Those northeast winds will ease and veer to an
easterly direction tomorrow, with high temperatures running a
bit lower (mid 70s to around 80) amidst the cool advection.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Winds will go light tomorrow evening into early Sunday morning,
but as the surface high shifts east into the Midwest low level
flow will increase from the south on Sunday. At the same time,
diffluent flow with the left exit region of the 300mb jet will
eventually catch the cut-off low across the Desert Southwest and
send it our way. Multiple shortwaves will ripple through the
Front Range, resulting in lee cyclones which will serve to
tighten the surface pressure gradient across the tri-state area
and favor seasonably breezy conditions.
West of any dryline that sets up each day Sunday-Tuesday (and
possibly beyond), the deeper mixing will favor warmer
temperatures, larger dew point depressions (hence lower RH
values), and stronger surface winds, which could result in some
marginal fire weather concerns after our several-day dry
stretch. In addition, if optimal mixing depth is achieved (~2km)
in those areas west of the dryline (most likely our eastern CO
counties) where boundary layer lapse rates are steep, then there
will at least be a low chance for some blowing dust.
While the probability is low (10-20%), we`ll also be watching
for any convection developing off the higher terrain to our
west. Low level moisture is so scarce on Sunday, it would be
somewhat surprising if our area gets any storms though it`s
noteworthy that a couple iterations of the ECMWF have hinted at
it. However, late Monday into Tuesday both the GFS and ECMWF
depict a more appreciable disturbance lifting across the tri-
state area, which in theory would bring a better opportunity for
at least isolated storms. Given the steep lapse rates advected
into our area ahead of that disturbance, one wouldn`t be
surprised if any storm becomes strong-severe with some hail (and
gusty winds given the deep, dry sub-cloud layer), but at this
point confidence in any - let alone severe - storms is low.
Cluster analysis suggests Low Resolution Ensemble Forecast
(LREF) system member dispersion in the 500mb height (synoptic)
pattern heading into mid to late next work week. This is
reflected well in the global deterministic models (CMC, ECMWF,
GFS) as well, as each differ from one another in how they
portray the evolution of one of more prospective weather systems
that may impact the Great Basin and Plains Regions.
Consequently, confidence is low in the observable weather from
Wednesday onward. For what it`s worth, the NBM advertises
generally sub mentionable (i.e., less than 15%) chances for
precipitation and slightly above normal temperatures (upper 70s
to mid 80s).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Main concerns for this TAF cycle involve a wind shift in
response to a cold front passing over the terminals and a small
chance of low-level wind shear around 12Z. At 23Z a cold front
stretched from northeast Colorado to north-central Nebraska. The
front will advance southeastward tonight. Winds are forecast to
veer northerly in the wake of the front and wind speeds will
increase to around 10 to 15 knots. Several models indicate a
potential for a few hours of LLWS in the 10-14Z timeframe. Winds
in the 500-1000 ft AGL layer will be from the northeast at that
time around 25 to 30 knots. A few models feature winds of 35 to
40 knots. Will need to monitor trends and add LLWS if confidence
increases. Winds will continue to veer through Saturday
eventually turning easterly. There is a 30% chance of MVFR to
IFR ceilings or visibility at GLD Saturday night after 28.10Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bumgardner
LONG TERM...Bumgardner
AVIATION...Huyck

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion