Wheatland, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

983
FXUS63 KFGF 301156
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
656 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue this week with
  record highs possible in some areas on Thursday. Increased
  shower chances this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Timing of the showers exiting the forecast area into Manitoba
worked out well as the last of the activitiy is crossing the
border. High clouds streaming northward and per 06z model data
should be over the valley into MN for a large part of the day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...Synopsis...
Isolated elevated t-storms developed in east central ND late
last evening....Mayville to Cooperstown. A broken band of
showers and a few t-storms were formed as what appears to be a
surface warm front lifts north. Winds are shifting to the
southeast at GFK/CKN and DVL where winds had been more east-
northeast a few hours ago. Temps rising and dew points up about
2-3 degrees. Broken band of showers will push north towad the
border and eventually out of the area this morning, near
sunrise. Few spots getting over 0.10 inch of rain with near the
Red River.
Upper level flow is south to north over the area with upper
ridge in northwest Illinois. Area of thicker high clouds will
spread north-northeast thru parts of the valley and MN this
morning into the afternoon. Degree of thickness is uncertain in
relating to amount of sun. Monday`s high temps in the warm
sector south of the front went crazy high, higher than any
model, with low to mid 90s in SE ND and parts of WC MN. 925 and
850 mb temps cool just a tad today and Wednesday (1-3C cooler)
and with some cloud cover didnt feel comfortable raising NBM
high temps too much for today or Wednesday. Though did blend in
NBM75 to get highs about 2-3 degrees higher than straight NBM.
Result was similar to prev fcst with mid 80s in the
valley....even the north as warm front lifts north thru the area
early today.
There is a 500 mb short that is forecast to move NNE thru the
valley this evening/tonight. Various models do try to generate a
few showers with this and did keep the given pops for tonight
for the RRV. Like this early morning would expect showers to be
elevated, mid level based. A couple hundred MUCAPE around too
along with an increasing 850 mb south jet to 40 kts. So some
thunderstorms are possible near that 06z-10z period.
Wednesday will be breezy to windy with south winds 15-30 mph and
a south 925-850 mb jet to 35 kts but warm advection is
negligble. Therefore highs likely similar on Wednesday to today
with low to mid 80s.
Warmer on Thursday but 850 mb temps remain cooler than what
occurred Monday. Still though mid 80s common with likely near 90
in a few spots, provided it is full sun. These forecast temps
are near record values as Thu Oct 2 has lower record highs than
other days this week, with 90 at FAR, 85 at FGF and 83 at GFK.
Evolution of shower chance and locations will depend on location
of 500 mb upper trough that will move into the central Rockies
as well as location of a separate short wave moving east into
Saskatchewan Saturday. Moisture ahead of these features, but
whether higher rain chances are more north/west fcst area or
south/east fcst area is uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR thru the pd. But will have considerable high clouds today
into part of tonight. Increasing southeast wind with gusts 20-25
kts this aftn and likely holding thru tonight in the RRV and DVL
region. FAR TAF site in particular is prone to keep winds up
thru the night.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion