Whalan, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

607
FXUS63 KARX 021716
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1216 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures through the
  weekend with high temperatures on Friday and Saturday in the
  mid to upper 80s.
- Low rain chances (15 to 40%) for Sunday evening into Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Dry Conditions and Above Normal Temperatures Through the
Weekend:
After a weak shortwave trough moves through today, ridging returns
through the weekend. This shortwave passage is not expected to bring
much in the rain chance realm as there is a dry and capped
atmosphere over much of the region. Despite the capped environment,
there is a low chance, up to 10%, that a shower or storm could form
today into Friday. With the ridge axis off to the east, southwest
flow returns and resultant strong warm air advection moves into the
region. While under this pattern, temperatures are expected to warm
up a bit heading into the weekend. The most recent LREF 850mb
temperatures are between 16 and 18C for both Friday and Saturday.
NAEFS has these temperatures in the 90 to 99.5 range for their
climate percentiles indicating that these temperatures are
abnormally warm. While temperatures today will be in the low to mid
80s, those 850mb temperatures for Friday and Saturday will result in
highs 20 to 25 degrees above normal. Forecasted high temperatures
for both days are in the mid to upper 80s, with some locations
potentially approaching 90 degrees. With this abnormal warmth, we
will be close to some record high temperatures for Saturday. The
forecasted high temperatures for La Crosse and Rochester are 87 and
85 degrees respectively. The records for those cities are 88 and 84
degrees. The temperatures on Friday are a few degrees off the record
highs for both La Crosse and Rochester. By Sunday, the better warm
air advection shifts southeast of the CWA and due to this, highs
drop into the upper 70s to low 80s.
Heading into Saturday, a shortwave trough dips down into the
Intermountain West and moves northeastward into the northern Plains.
Ahead of this trough, the pressure gradient tightens up and the
southwest winds increase. Sustained surface winds of 15 to 20 mph
with gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be possible on Saturday and slightly
stronger winds will be possible for Sunday. With the current
trajectory this trough takes, the strongest winds remain west of the
Mississippi for Saturday, however as the cold front gets closer
winds increase for Sunday across the entire CWA with 15 to 25 mph
sustained southwest winds and gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible. Now
even with a good fetch of southerly flow bringing moisture all the
way from the Gulf up here, PWATs will stay below 1" during the day
on both Saturday and Sunday. Dewpoints are forecasted to be in the
mid to upper 50s, however if deeper mixing occurs, this could lower
the dewpoints. With the area continuing a prolonged period of mostly
dry weather and surface soil moisture getting drier across the CWA,
both days could have elevated fire weather conditions. This will be
something to monitor as we head into the weekend.
Cooler Temperatures and Shower/Storm Chances for Next Week:
Models are coming into better agreement that early next our area
will be on the southern fringes of a longwave trough. Cooler
temperatures, closer to normal for this time of year, are expected,
as highs dip back down into low to mid 60s. Rain chances for Monday
and Tuesday next week are gradually decreasing due to a capped
environment over much of the region. NBM precipitation chances for
Sunday evening into Tuesday are between 15 and 40% with the highest
chances for rain on Monday and Tuesday mornings.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR expected through the 02.18Z TAF period. Confidence in local subsequent
widespread impacts will be increased winds overnight Friday
through Saturday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Here are daily record highs for Friday and Saturday with the
current forecasted high.
October 3
La Crosse:  91 (1997)/ 88
Rochester:  93 (1997)/ 87
October 4:
    La Crosse:  88 (2005)/ 87
    Rochester:  84 (2005)/ 85
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...JAR
CLIMATE...Cecava

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion