Westbrook, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

337
FXUS64 KMAF 191106
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
606 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Low rain chances (10-40%) continue across the higher terrain, southeast
  New Mexico, and the northern Permian Basin through Saturday.
- Summer-like temperatures return Sunday and Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Quiet and relatively uneventful weather for the end of this week
into this weekend is expected. VIS/IR satellite imagery currently
shows scattered to broken cloud cover. Light and variable winds
early today become mainly south/southeast and breezy at times by mid
morning today, keeping conditions seasonably humid as dew point
temperatures remain in the mid 50s to lower 60s F. Under continued
scattered to broken cloud cover, highs, just as yesterday, are
forecast to rise into the mid 80s F to lower 90s F range, upper 70s
F to lower 80s F higher elevations, and mid to upper 90s F Presidio
Valley into Big Bend. Low (15%-20%) probability of showers/storms
over Marfa Plateau into SE NM plains expected to develop this
afternoon/evening from heating of elevated terrain, upslope
southeast flow, and weak disturbances in northwesterly flow aloft to
the east of mid to upper troughing over the Pacific SW into Desert
SW, providing lift and moisture. Similar to last night and much of
this month, lows fall into the mid to upper 60s F, upper 50s to
lower 60s F higher elevations, basins of higher elevations, and
northern Lea County, and lower 70s F along Rio Grande.
Warmer temperatures are forecast Saturday, as building mid to upper
ridging ahead of mid to upper troughing over Pacific NW into Desert
SW allows greater large scale sinking motion and warmer
temperatures. Highs are forecast to rise into the upper 80s F to
lower to mid 90s F, 80s F higher elevations and much of Lea County
into northwest Permian Basin, and mid to upper 90s Presidio Valley
into Big Bend. Heating of elevated terrain, upslope near surface
flow, and disturbances aloft will again result in development of
showers/storms over parts of the area in the afternoon/evening.
However, even though probability of rain will remain low (20%-30%),
highest probability of rain - unlike today - will not be over
westernmost higher terrain, but instead over Marfa Plateau into
Lower Trans Pecos, followed by Lea County into northern Permian
Basin, with lower chances elsewhere. The latter will be in
association with a passing near surface trough from TX panhandle
into easternmost NM. Except in locally heavy showers/storms,
rainfall is not expected to be more more than a few inches in
highest percentile ensembles, with a high probability of places
where storms could occur today and tomorrow in the CWA only seeing a
few hundredths or less of rain. Lows Saturday night settle a few
degrees warmer than tonight due to warmer daytime temperatures
taking longer to cool off overnight. A warming trend continues into
the end of the weekend into early next week, before cooler
conditions again arrive. More on that in the long term discussion.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The long-term period begins with much warmer temperatures. This
is thanks to the upper-level ridge becoming more amplified over
the region with increasing thicknesses and downslope winds. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s Sunday
afternoon. This will place temperatures roughly 10-15 degrees
above normal for this time of year. Most, if not all areas look to
remain dry due to subsidence from the ridge. Monday, the upper-
level ridge stays placed over the region. Slightly warmer
temperatures are forecast where a few locations look to reach the
lower 100s. The current forecast for Midland Intl Air and Space
Port has a high of 100 degrees which would tie the record
temperature set back in 1977.
Monday night, the ridge begins to weaken, thanks to an upper-level
trough swinging across the Rockies and Great Basin region. Shortwave
pulses within the flow of the ridge allows for isolated to scattered
rain showers and storms to occur. This will prompt low rain (10-30%)
chances and cooler temperatures returning to the region heading into
Tuesday. Now, how cool temperatures will get is the question. By
Tuesday afternoon, the aforementioned trough begins to swing across
the Great Plains. Cluster analysis and ensemble guidance continues
to have split solutions to the upper-level pattern. The Euro
ensemble brings the trough further south across the region which
will provide near normal temperatures and higher rain chances.
However, the GFS ensemble places the trough further north, limiting
rain chances and keeping summer-like temperatures throughout next
week. This is something to monitor and details should be ironed out
as we get closer to next week. Stay tuned!
Lamberson
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions forecast throughout TAF period. Winds at terminals
across SE NM plains into Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau
increase 14Z-18Z Friday and become gusty up to 15-20 knots before
diminishing 00Z-03Z Saturday. Low probability of isolated
showers/storms 18Z-03Z for terminals over Upper Trans Pecos into
SE NM plains, where MVFR or lower conditions, heavy rain, and
lightning will be main impacts with any storms.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               90  67  92  68 /  10  10  20  10
Carlsbad                 88  65  91  66 /  20  20  10   0
Dryden                   91  69  93  69 /  10   0  10   0
Fort Stockton            90  68  92  69 /  10  10  20   0
Guadalupe Pass           79  62  82  64 /  40  40  20   0
Hobbs                    86  64  88  64 /  10  20  20  10
Marfa                    83  59  84  58 /  30  20  20   0
Midland Intl Airport     90  68  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                   89  68  90  68 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                     89  67  92  67 /  10  10  10  10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion