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884
FXUS64 KHGX 180010
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
710 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Weather remains mostly status quo for the next several days with
  slightly above normal temperatures and some isolated to widely
  scattered, mainly daytime, showers and storms.
- Monday night or Tuesday looks to be the next best chance of
  some widespread meaningful rainfall.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Though we`ll have some low-mid level ridging in the vicinity in
the region for the next several days, it probably won`t be enough
to completely suppress some isolated to widely scattered shower
and tstm development in the afternoon to early evening hours.
As the surface high across the northern Gulf coast moves a bit
further eastward late in the weekend and early next week, we`ll
see a more prevailing sse wind off the Gulf set up. This will
drive PW`s up from their current values around 1.5" closer to the
2" mark. Further aloft, we should see the flow amplify with
western ridging expanding north, followed by a deepening
central/eastern CONUS trof.
Deterministic guidance is mostly on the same page showing a
shortwave embedded in the NNW flow aloft diving into the region
either Monday night or Tuesday which should bring us our next
decent shot of more widespread shra/tstm activity. Mainly went the
blended route in regards to POPs for now, but would anticipate
that they`ll go up in one of those two time periods if/when we
get some continued model consistency and are able to better pin
down timing. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Currently monitoring thunderstorms over SW Louisiana early this
evening. These storms are expected to weaken as they move WSW;
however, a brief period of -SHRA or -TSRA will be possible near
HOU and GLS terminals this evening. Light and variable winds
tonight will again strengthen around 7 to 10 kts by mid-late
Thursday morning. Scattered showers and storms will be possible in
the afternoon, though confidence in occurrence and coverage is
medium. Therefore, will continue with PROB30 through the end of
this TAF cycle. Overall, VFR conditions are expected through the
period.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds and 2 to 4
foot seas should continue over the next several days along with a
daily risk of isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. As surface high pressure moves a bit further east,
a more prevalent and slightly increased southeast wind will set up
later in the weekend into early next week.  47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  93  70  93 /  20  30  10  10
Houston (IAH)  74  92  73  92 /  20  40  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  79  88  79  88 /  30  20   0  10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...47

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion