Wallace, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

089
FXUS63 KLBF 211136
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
636 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few morning showers and perhaps a thunderstorm can be
  expected across southwest Nebraska early this morning.
- Rain chances increase Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.
  There will be some potential for heavier rainfall across parts
  of the area.
- Dry conditions and mild/warm temperatures are expected for
  the latter part of the week into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
An area of showers continues to move across southwest Nebraska early
this morning. These seems to be the result of some weak mid-level
WAA and FGEN. This fades by late morning and the showers should end.
A warm front lifts northward through the area with a return of lower
to mid 60s dew points across the eastern half of the forecast area.
Highs warm into the lower and mid 80s this afternoon with an area of
decent instability developing east of Highway 83. A weak surface
trough will be located across far western Nebraska. It appears that
overall weak low-level convergence along the boundary and little
upper level forcing should keep conditions dry. If a storm does
manage to develop near the surface trough and push eastward into the
instability axis it could become strong. Also there will be a warm
front near the NE/SD border that will have to be monitored, but
again forcing is weak and convergence minimal so not expecting much
if anything at this point.
Monday into Monday evening will likely become more active. A potent
shortwave will be moving across WY with a surface low deepening
across Nebraska. Late Monday afternoon a cold front will surge
southward across northwest Nebraska and serve as the focus for
potential convective initiation. Monday night the surface low should
be located across KS as the WY shortwave begins to close off as it
moves southeastward into western KS. Moisture looks to wrap back
west around the upper low Tuesday with a potential rainy day across
portions of central and southern Nebraska. Will have to monitor as
the convection Monday night could affect the overall kinematics and
placement of the upper low center. If it ends up farther south in
Kansas, rainfall amounts Tuesday would be much lighter. The
potential for some heavy rainfall is there and will have to watch
the model trends the next day or so.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 414 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The upper level low will be slow to depart and will migrate toward
the Great Lakes by Wednesday night. Colder air aloft will be in
place Wednesday with plenty of stratocumulus and a few widely
scattered showers a possibility. Upper level ridging will slowly
begin to build northeastward across the area Thursday into next
weekend. This will bring mainly dry conditions and a warming trend
to the area. Highs will climb from the the lower 70s Wednesday...to
the upper 70s to near 80 by Friday and Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions will prevail all areas today through tonight.
Winds will be light, less than 10 kts. Clear skies today will be
followed by an increase in a few high clouds tonight.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion