378 FXUS66 KPQR 032148 AFDPQRArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 248 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...40-70% chance of light rain showers Friday night into early Saturday morning. Showers should become more isolated Saturday afternoon. Low-level offshore flow develops Sunday and continues through at least Tuesday, bringing an extended period of dry weather with breezy east to northeast winds and daytime high temperatures in the 70s across the lowlands.
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.DISCUSSION...Friday night through Thursday night...Water vapor imagery from early Friday afternoon depicted a swath of enhanced moisture over Vancouver Island and the adjacent coastal waters, moving southeastward towards northwestern Washington. This area of moisture is evident along and ahead of a weak upper level shortwave trough. The latest suite of model guidance continues to suggest this shortwave trough will move southeastward across western WA and northwest OR late Friday night into early Saturday morning, bringing increasing chances for light rain showers to the area. It appears there will be a break in showers mid to late Saturday morning, before diurnally driven showers redevelop Saturday afternoon. That said, hi-res model guidance suggests showers will be quite isolated and light. Forecast soundings depict very shallow convection with low equilibrium levels. As such, much of the day will be dry on Saturday, and most locations will only observe a trace of rain to a few hundredths of an inch. Expect seasonable temperatures with afternoon highs in the 60s.
The weather pattern begins to change on Sunday as a thermally induced surface trough begins building northward into northwest Oregon while surface high pressure develops east of the Cascades. This will bring a transition to low-level offshore flow, with east to northeast winds becoming rather breezy at times, especially on exposed ridgetops in the Cascades. The Columbia River Gorge and Willamette Valley will also be breezy. Winds are not expected to be strong enough for wind damage or notable impacts to occur. The offshore flow pattern looks to stay in place through at least Tuesday, resulting in at least three consecutive days with dry/breezy/sunny conditions. Temperatures will also become noticeably warmer with highs in the 70s across the lowlands. Tuesday is still shaping up to be the warmest day of the week with highs in the mid to upper 70s, except lower 70s at the coast.
Chances for rain return to the forecast late Wednesday into Thursday, however uncertainty is high that far out in time. While the LREF grand ensemble mean shows rain amounts ranging between 0.1-0.2 inches during that time, overall model spread is very large. For example, the LREF 10-25th percentile for QPF shows no rain at all, while the 90th percentile shows 0.4-0.6 inches. The outcome will also impact temperatures. If conditions remain dry and mostly sunny, high temps will likely stay in the 70s. If conditions wind up cloudy and wet, highs will cool into the 60s. Currently the warmer/drier solution is favored over the cool/wet solution based on LREF and NBM probabilistic guidance, albeit not by much. -59
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.AVIATION...Satellite imagery as of Friday afternoon depicts clearing skies and scattered clouds as much of the morning stratus has now broken out. Most terminals are now predominately VFR, except for LIFR conditions at KONP. Tonight, a weak shortwave trough will brush the region, returning lower CIGs and scattered showers. High confidence (60-80% chance) that IFR/MVFR CIGs or lower return along the coast by 02-04z Sat, with moderate confidence (40-70% chance) across Valley terminals after 09-12z Sat. The highest chances for MVFR CIGs in the Valley are around the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area. It looks like onshore flow will favor stratus developing along the Cascade foothills and back- building into the Valley. Winds generally west-southwesterly under 5 kt across the area, becoming variable and under 5 kt overnight.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with mid to high level clouds prevail through this evening. CIGs lower as a weak system moves through, bringing a 50-70% chance for MVFR CIGs returning around 09-12z Sat. Southwesterly winds this evening around 5 kt, becoming variable under 5 kt overnight. -10
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.MARINE...A very weak low pressure system will maintain southerly to southwesterly winds across all waters through this evening. Since pressure gradients don`t look too tight with this system, winds remain around 5-10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt tonight (strongest over the central and southern outer waters). Despite winds being around 15 kt or less, seas will remain choppy. A brief Small Craft Advisory has been issued from 11 PM Fri to 5 AM Sat for choppy seas beyond 10 NM south of Cape Falcon. Expect 6-7 ft seas at 8-9 seconds through Saturday morning.
Winds shift northwesterly early Saturday morning as surface high pressure re-builds following the weak system. Northwesterly winds remain under 15 kt on Saturday, however, stronger high pressure and tightening pressure gradients will make winds breezier on Sunday. Winds also shift more northeasterly Sunday into early next week as a thermal trough develops along the coast. Guidance suggests high confidence (60-80% chance) that the waters beyond 10 NM south of Cape Falcon will experience northeasterly wind gusts up to 25 kt (small craft conditions) on Sunday. Elsewhere, these chances remain around 20% or less. Seas fall to 4-6 ft on Saturday, and hold through early next week. -10
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.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ272-273. &&
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NWS PQR Office Area Forecast Discussion