Van Nuys, California Weather Forecast Discussion

140
FXUS66 KLOX 052059
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
159 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...05/113 PM.
A low pressure system over the West will keep cooler than normal
conditions in place through at least Wednesday. Light rain is
possible in Los Angeles County on Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...05/125 PM.
The quiet weather pattern is expected to continue at least through
mid week as a weak low pressure system sits off the Central Coast
before moving inland Wednesday. In the meantime, daytime highs
will be slightly below normal, but with a slow warming trend
Monday and Tuesday. With the upper low moving inland Wednesday
most areas will see a degree or two of cooling but otherwise no
big changes. The marine layer has been very slow to return but
forecast soundings do finally show a developing marine inversion
that should lead to increasing morning low clouds the next couple
days, some of which may poke into the lower coastal valleys for a
few hours.
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...05/154 PM.
Following the departure of the upper low on Wednesday heights will
begin a steady climb through Friday as high pressure builds north
through the desert southwest. With onshore flow remaining on the
lighter side and a lowering marine inversion, highs in most areas
are expected to warm at least a few degrees and possibly as much
as 10 degrees across some interior areas.
However, there are a couple of significant complicating factors
later this week that will play a role in the forecast. Tropical
storm Priscilla is expected to march up the Baja coast later this
week. At the same time another unseasonably cold upper low
(557dam, below the 5th percentile based on climatology) will drop
down the West coast. Most of the ensemble solutions bring the low
as far south as KSFO Saturday before moving inland. The timing and
track of this low will certainly have an impact on the track of
Priscilla as it moves up the Baja coast. Models have clearly been
struggling with this interaction and whether there will be enough
northward push to bring rain into southern California and
particularly our forecast area. The latest iteration of models
seems to lean slightly towards the wetter side locally, but with
the most impactful weather remains well south and east of LA
County.
&&
.AVIATION...05/1859Z.
At 1807Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3200 ft with a temperature of 17 C.
High confidence in KPRB KPMD and KWJF.
Low to moderate confidence in remainder of the TAFs, due
uncertainty in the arrival time of cigs. Minimum flight categories
may be off by 1 category at times. There is a 20% chance of little
to no cigs developing tonight at KSBP, KSMX, KSBA, and KCMA, and
a 40% chance of no cigs at KVNY and KBUR.
KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF, arrival time of low
clouds aft this evening could be any time between 06Z-12Z. No
significant east wind component expected.
KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance
of no cigs developing tonight.
&&
.MARINE...05/922 AM.
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds across the outer waters
and nearshore waters along the Central Coast have dropped off
earlier this morning. Some choppy, short-period waves may linger
through this afternoon, but winds will likely fall below SCA
criteria. Conditions are likely to remain below SCA criteria
through mid- week.
For the inner waters south of Point Conception, conditions
should generally remain below SCA criteria through the beginning
of the week. Then, there is a 20-40% chance for SCA level winds
Thursday and Friday evening.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Phillips/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...MW
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion