Valera, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

923
FXUS64 KSJT 222028
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
328 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot temperatures on Tuesday, with highs at or above 100 degrees
  across the Big Country and northwest Concho Valley.
- Increased chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday
  afternoon into Wednesday. A few of these storms could be strong
  to severe on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
 &&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Temperatures have soared into the upper 90s across most of west
central Texas this afternoon, with temperatures above 100 degrees
at several locations in the Big Country. Abilene (102 degrees as
of 3 PM) has already broken its record high of 99 degrees set in
2000. San Angelo is a couple of degrees shy of its record for the
day (101 degrees set in 1926). A few spotty showers also developed
in the Big Country. Could see a few widely isolated storms develop
through the rest of the afternoon given a moderately unstable
atmosphere but overall coverage will remain low.
Hot conditions will continue on Tuesday, with highs once again in
the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. A cold front will begin to
approach the Big Country by the late afternoon/evening hours.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the
Big Country as early as the late afternoon. High res CAMS
indicate a broken line of storms developing after 5-6 PM across
the Big Country and northwest Concho Valley. See the long term
discussion below for more details on severe potential.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The main concern is the tail end of the rain and thunderstorm
chances Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. A negatively-
tilted upper level trough over the central Plains should push
southeastward Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will push a cold
front southward through central Texas. South of the boundary,
dewpoints will be around 70 with CAPE values of 1500-3000 J/kg.
Hi- resolution models show storms already ongoing by late Tuesday
evening, mainly across the Big Country. Any of these storms could
produce localized wind gusts or perhaps some hail. Multiple mid-
level impulses will pass along the front overnight which will lead
to additional shower and thunderstorm development late Tuesday
night. The front will continue to push southward Wednesday
morning. Models show a line of showers and thunderstorms moving
southward with the front during this time. Temperatures behind the
front will be much cooler Wednesday afternoon. The current
forecast is for highs in the low 80s but any post-frontal showers
and cloud cover could hold temperatures down in the mid to upper
70s.
Quieter weather looks in store for the rest of the week as surface
high pressure fills in behind the front.  High temperatures will be
in the mid to upper 80s which is right around normal for this time
of year.  By this weekend, the surface high will shift eastward and
allow southerly return flow to set up for Saturday and Sunday and
temperatures could start to creep back into the low 90s. Models are
in general agreement of an upper-level low forming over southern
California on Saturday and drifting through the Desert Southwest
through Sunday. Although west central Texas will be underneath an
upper-level ridge over the weekend, the approaching low to the west
could start to introduce some low chances for showers late Saturday
night through Sunday.  For now, confidence on this is low,
especially because these models tend to do a poor job resolving
these types of features more than five days out.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will
be out of the south-southeast with occasional gusts to around 15
knots this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     76  99  68  83 /   0  30  70  50
San Angelo  72  98  68  81 /   0  10  60  70
Junction    70  95  70  85 /   0   0  30  80
Brownwood   72  97  68  83 /   0  10  60  70
Sweetwater  75  99  67  81 /   0  30  70  60
Ozona       71  95  69  82 /   0  10  30  70
Brady       71  95  70  80 /   0  10  50  70
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...42

NWS SJT Office Area Forecast Discussion