Ursine, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

876
FXUS65 KVEF 252257
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
357 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for southern
  Nevada, southeastern California, and northwestern Arizona through
  the weekend.
* Moisture gradually scours out of the region through the work week,
  with a fall-like pattern bringing below-normal temperatures and
  breezy afternoons.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.
A closed area of low pressure off the southern California coast will
push inland through the day today. The dynamics associated with this
low, combined with PWATs 150 to 200 percent of normal (0.50 to 1.00
inches) and clearing skies allowing for CAPE values between 500 and
1000 J/kg will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms today
through the remainder of the work week into the weekend. Best
chances exist today across the southern Great Basin, including
northern Inyo, southern Nye, Lincoln, northern Mohave, and northern
Clark counties. With thunderstorms that form, expect locally heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. As the afternoon
progresses, northern Mohave is expected to be the main show, with
the HREF continuing to highlight the Arizona Strip with chances of
thunderstorm-related wind gusts in excess of 58 mph. To mirror this,
the Storm Prediction Center has northern Mohave, northeastern Clark,
and southeastern Lincoln counties under a "Marginal" threat for
severe weather this afternoon, with damaging winds being the primary
hazard of concern. Thunderstorms that have gone over rain gauges
this afternoon have not been as productive of rain-makers as
anticipated, though the threat of flash flooding cannot be ruled out
in areas with training storms, as storms today strongly favor
forming over the higher terrain before moving over valley locations.
The aforementioned closed low will bring enhanced forcing and
moisture to the region over the next few days as its center
traverses the Mojave Desert, which will bring a return of shower and
thunderstorm chances to the forecast area each day through Sunday.
The closed low will weaken into an open wave by early next week as
it pushes through Arizona and New Mexico. The resultant flow will be
southwesterly, which is typically a dry pattern for our forecast
area; however, remnants of what is now Hurricane Narda will get
swept up into the flow, returning chances of terrain-based
convection Monday and Tuesday afternoons. By midweek, a fall-like
trough will approach the Desert Southwest, bringing breezy and dry
conditions. Details of next week`s forecast will become more clear
as we move through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Thunderstorms should move away from the Las Vegas area
late this afternoon. Southwesterly winds of less than 10 knots
develop overnight. For tomorrow, thunderstorms begin to develop in
southern Nevada after sunrise. The greatest potential for storms
at the terminal will be the mid to late morning, but storms remain
in the area into the evening. Brief downpours and gusty outflow
winds from distant storms are the main concerns. Outside of
storms, tomorrow`s winds should be out of the east at less than 10
knots.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Thunderstorm activity
should taper off for much of the area this evening, except for
northern Owens Valley including KBIH where potential remains
until around 06Z, which may produce gusty outflow winds. For
tomorrow, the main thunderstorm concerns are in southern Nevada
and the Colorado River Valley. Activity begins shortly after
sunrise and lasts through most of the day, with heavy downpours
and gusty outflow winds possible. Outside of storms and distant
outflows, winds should generally follow typical diurnal patterns.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Meltzer
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion