Upper Tygart, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

224
FXUS61 KRLX 270945
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
545 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbance brings chances for showers today. Drier
Saturday night through Sunday night as a upper ridge takes
control. Tropical system approaches by mid week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 205 AM Saturday...
Ample and persistent upper level trough, with axis along the
southern states, will gradually advance east through Saturday night.
This shortwave will pull moisture across the eastern mountains,
allowing an increased chance for showers and perhaps a few
isolated storms.
Welcomed rainfall accumulations from 0.50 to 0.75 inches are
expected across most of WV, with higher amounts in and near the
mountains. Repetitive showers and storms, or slow moving storms
could result in isolated water issues through tonight. WPC keeps
a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall over the eastern half of
WV, including SW VA through tonight.
Cloud cover and a gentle northerly breeze will keep afternoon
temperatures from the low 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the
upper 50s northeast mountains. High humidity will keep lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 AM Saturday...
By Saturday night, the upper trough moves overhead, providing
forcing along and east of the mountains. This will bring drier
conditions to the end of the weekend and start of the new work week
as the aforementioned upper disturbance shifts east of the
Appalachians losing its influence over the local area. However,
isolated showers or storms can not be ruled out along the mountains
Saturday night into Sunday night.
Drier conditions will continue Monday and Monday night as an upper
ridge from the northwest takes control over the OH valley and
most parts of WV.
High temperatures Sunday/Monday will be slightly above normal with
low to mid 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s northeast
mountains. Clear skies and near calm flow will allow for strong
radiational cooling and associated dense river valley fog
development Sunday night into Monday morning. Monday night
looks warmer, in the lower 60s due to abundant cloud cover
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 AM Saturday...
We are closely watching a strengthening tropical system that is
expected near the Southeast coast by Tuesday. This system is the key
to our weather forecast for next week, but its exact track is still
very uncertain. There are two potential outcomes. If the system
stays out at sea, a surface high pressure will keep our weather dry.
However, if the system moves inland across the Carolinas, this
will bring a chance of showers and possible heavy rain to our
area, especially later Tuesday and on Wednesday.
Because we`re still a few days out, the forecast calls for a 20 to
40 percent chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday. If the system gets
closer, probability of precipitation will increase. By Thursday,
conditions should dry out as high pressure takes over. Expect
temperatures to be near or slightly warmer than normal for this
time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 545 AM Saturday...
Radar imagery shows a large area of showers with embedded
thunderstorms east of the mountains at the time of writing. Expect
shower to develop across the eastern mountains and western foothills
today. Brief periods of IFR conditions under SHRA will be possible
at BKW and EKN this afternoon and tonight. Low stratus may develop
along the eastern mountains as well. Otherwise, MVFR/VFR conditions
will prevail.
Showers become more widespread this afternoon. Coded PROB30 groups
to account for SHRA and IFR/MVFR conditions at the eastern
terminals. Although conditions will gradually improve during the
day, some MVFR conditions and light showers may persist along the
mountains for the bulk of the TAF period.
Near calm winds becoming light north to northeast today, and light
and variable tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/extent of fog, rain, and stratus may
vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                              SAT 09/27/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    L
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR is possible at night with low stratus and/or fog through
Monday morning.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion