Umpqua, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

937
FXUS66 KMFR 131754
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1054 AM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.Updated AVIATION Discussion...
&&
.AVIATION...13/18Z TAFs...A mix of IFR/MVFR conditions persist along
the coast and into the northern portions of the Umpqua Basin. This
will gradually improve over the next few hours, lifting to MVFR with
at least a brief period of VFR conditions possible along the coast
this afternoon. For inland locations, VFR conditions will prevail
through this evening with typical afternoon breezes and increasing
high level cloud cover ahead of an approaching system.
A front will move onshore this evening and spread through the region
overnight. This will bring lowering conditions from west to east
along with increasing mountain obscurations along and west of the
Cascades. Generally IFR conditions are expected along the coast with
a mix of low end VFR and MVFR conditions for terminals west of the
Cascades. There`s pretty good agreement on increased thunderstorm
chances (20-30%) along the coast/coast ranges westward between 06z-
12z tonight, and potentially into the Umpqua Basin as well after
09z. A slight chance of thunderstorms (10-15%) will continue for the
reminder of south central Oregon into early Sunday morning, and
linger for eastern Lake County through Sunday afternoon. /BR-y
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 633 AM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025/
DISCUSSION...Coastal low clouds are expected to linger for most
of the morning, breaking up into the afternoon. Otherwise, there
are a few patches of early morning valley fog inland.
Warm and dry conditions today will be followed by a low with
showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms tonight
through Sunday, mainly in southern Oregon and northward. Warming
and drying returns on Monday as a ridge builds through mid-week.
Tuesday will be the warmest of the forecast period with highs in
west side valleys in the upper 80s to mid 90s, while east side
areas are forecast to see temperatures in the 80s. Breezy
easterly winds are expected over the Coast Range Sunday night and
a broader area Monday night, with moderate ridge top humidity
recoveries expected Monday night and Tuesday night. An approaching
trough on Wednesday and Thursday is expected to bring only slight
cooling, with seasonably warm temperatures that will still be a
few to several degrees above normal. The trough passage is most
likely to occur on Friday with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. A brief, dry break with ridging between weak
systems is forecast for next weekend.
MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, September 13, 2025...
Northwest swell continues to build into the region and will
persist through the weekend. However, conditions will remain below
advisory levels through Sunday morning. By this evening, an
approaching low will bring showers, with a slight chance of
thunderstorms late tonight into early Sunday morning.
Additionally, a thermal trough may support wind-driven steep seas
as early as Sunday afternoon into Monday evening. North winds will
be strongest south of Cape Blanco.
FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, September 13, 2025...A
low will move into the area Saturday night and Sunday bringing rain
showers and chances for isolated  thunderstorms. Wetting rain is
likely along the coast (60-80% chance) Saturday night into Sunday,
with lower chances (10-50%) inland across southwest Oregon. Northern
California zones are expected to see lower chances for any
precipitation and wetting rain (5-25%.
Fire weather concerns include a slight chance of thunderstorms along
the coast Saturday night and early Sunday morning, and from the
Southern Oregon Cascades east Sunday morning and afternoon.
Additionally, a moderate to strong warming and drying trend is
expected Monday morning and Tuesday. Moderate east winds are
expected across the coastal ranges early Monday morning with
moderate ridgetop recoveries. Then, on Tuesday morning, winds
decrease (with the exception of breezy east winds on the Umpqua
Divide, in far northern Jackson County) but moderate to locally poor
ridge top are expected. Moderate ridgetop recoveries are expected
again on Wednesday morning. A weak and dry front is expected to move
into the area Wednesday. This may result in some enhanced afternoon
breezes for inland area. Otherwise, expect temperatures to trend
less warm Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion