Two Rivers, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

416
FXAK69 PAFG 261004
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
204 AM AKDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The broad upper level troughing continues over Alaska, with a
series of low pressure systems meandering through the flow. These
low pressure systems will bring continued rain and snow chances
across the Central/Eastern Interior, Brooks/Alaska Ranges, North
Slope, and West Coast. The first low pressure system of interest
is a hurricane force low in the Gulf of Alaska that will impact
southeastern Alaska. While our area will not be impacted by the
winds with this low, continued wraparound moisture overspreads the
region from the south and east, supporting continued rain/snow
chances along the Brooks/Alaska Range, Central/Eastern Interior
and the North Slope. The second system is dropping south through
the Bering Sea today and glances the West Coast of Alaska. This
low will bring a return of scattered rain/snow chances to the West
Coast in addition to strong northwest winds. Wind gusts are
expected to be around 30 to 50 mph, with the strongest gusts
around Hooper Bay and Scammon Bay today. This low will quickly
build through the Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska in the
footsteps of the first low through tonight into Saturday. Cooler
temperatures accompany the arrival of these systems through the
end of the week and this weekend as an Arctic trough impedes into
the region.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Scattered rain and snow showers through the weekend.
- Increasing confidence in widespread light snowfall accumulations
  across mid and high elevations, with best chances across lower
  elevations, including Fairbanks, on Saturday night into Sunday
  morning.
- Lows continue to reach near to below freezing, supporting
  more widespread frost/freeze conditions, as we continue to wait
  for one of the record latest first freezes at Fairbanks
  International Airport.
- Highs through the weekend in the upper 30s to low 40s.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers along the West Coast
  today, with more widespread chances in the Yukon Delta as the
  Western Interior remains dry.
- Strong northwest winds accompany the system today, with peak
  wind gusts around 30 to 50 mph. The strongest wind gusts are
  expected around the Yukon Delta, near Hooper Bay and Scammon
  Bay. Gale Warnings are in effect today for portions of the
  Northern Bering Sea.
- Highs through the weekend in the upper 30s to low 40s.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers through the weekend,
  primarily across the North Slope and Central/Eastern Brooks
  Range. Increasing confidence in widespread light snowfall
  accumulations.
- Highs in the low to mid 30s along the Arctic Coast, teens to low
  30s in the Brooks Range.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Monday.
There remains two primary lows of interest this morning, with the
one in the Gulf of Alaska and a second dropping through the Bering
Sea. The first low, currently in the Gulf of Alaska, will be the
focus for hurricane force winds across southeast Alaska. While our
area will not be impacted by the winds, this low will continue to
wraparound moisture into the the region. A deformation zone has
formed from the Alaska Range through the Central/Eastern Interior
into the Eastern Brooks Range and Northern Arctic Coast. This area
has been the focused for isolated to scattered rain and snow
showers this morning, with guidance depicting additional
development through today and tonight. This low is expected to
gradually dissipate and become part of the second low that is
currently dropping south through the Bering Sea this morning. This
low is expected to glance portions of the West Coast as it drops
through Southwest Alaska and Aleutians, before making it into the
Gulf of Alaska tonight into Saturday. This low will be
responsible for a return of isolated to scattered rain and snow
showers to the West Coast today, in addition to strong northwest
winds. Peak wind gusts around 30 to 50 mph are expected around the
Yukon Delta, near Hooper Bay and Scammon Bay today. Additionally,
Gale Warnings are in effect for portions of Northern Bering Sea.
Overall, impacts are expected to remain lower with a northwest
fetch extending through Bering later today. There is a brief
period where winds will be onshore, with more of a westerly
component.
By Saturday into Sunday, there becomes one low in the Gulf of
Alaska, that provides additional moisture and supports continued
scattered rain and snow showers through the Central/Eastern
Interior and Brooks/Alaska Ranges. Additional chances exist along
the North Slope/Arctic Coast in association with a broad Arctic
trough that drives cooler air south into the Interior. QPF amounts
are generally limited to a 0.25 to 0.75 inch through the weekend.
Confidence is high in accumulating snowfall for mid to higher
elevations. As for lower elevations, including Fairbanks, guidance
is hinting at cold enough air Saturday night into Sunday to
support snow. There remains some uncertainty on the potential of
any light accumulations in the lower elevations, as temperatures
near freezing and warmer ground temperatures would need to be
overcome. Higher snowfall amounts can be expected through the
Alaska/Brooks Range and White Mountains.
As we progress into early next week, precipitation chances
gradually shift north and east of the Interior as a ridge nudges
into western Alaska. This ridge should keep most of the region
drier to begin the week, with cooler temperatures likely to
prevail. This includes overnight lows through the Interior in the
middle to upper 20s.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Next Tuesday through Friday.
Beyond early week precipitation chances, ensemble guidance begins
to diverge with a range of solutions on the pattern into early
October. Guidance is struggling to capture the extent of a ridge
building over the Bering Sea, and how it interacts with the
ongoing trough pattern over Alaska. There has been a slight trends
towards a trough and associated low pressure system building out
of Siberia into the Bering Sea by mid to late week, that would
support a return of rain and snow chances across the West Coast.
Stay tuned as we track how this pattern evolves over the coming
days.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-853-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
&&
$$

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion