Turtletown, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

848
FXUS64 KMRX 241643
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1243 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1217 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
-  Periods of rain, and isolated thunderstorms, through
    Thursday. Flash flood risk will increase later today and
    Thursday as the ground continues to saturate. Small streams
    and poor drainage areas most at risk of seeing rapid rises.
-  If thunderstorms occur today and tonight, a few strong to
    severe storms will be possible. Main risk is a low damaging
    wind threat. There is about a 5% chance of damaging winds
    within 25 miles of any location on this afternoon and evening,
    mainly west of Interstate 75 and south of Interstate 40.
-  Friday and Saturday have shifted to a more rainy solution, but
    likely light precipitation. Low rain chances continue into
    next week as the upper-level low remains near the Southern
    Appalachians.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1217 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Low pressure system is approaching the area with southwest flow
aloft and synoptic ascent. Widespread scattered rain showers
increase in coverage this evening and overnight tonight with a dry
slot on Thursday afternoon as the front moves east. With PW values
near 2.0 inches and saturated atmospheric profiles favoring warm
rain processes, tropical-like heavy rain rates will be possible
with localized flooding across flood prone locations this evening
through Thursday morning. The severe threat continues to diminish
with very limited instability this afternoon, although a low 5%
risk of damaging winds continues across our far south and west
corners of the forecast area near the southern plateau.
By Thursday afternoon, widespread precipitation will be east of
the area with scattered diurnal showers expected later in the day
as the upper-level low swings into the region. This upper-level
low becomes cutoff on Friday and into Saturday with weak steering
flow keeping it over the region. A mix of clouds and sun will be
expected each day with mostly dry mornings and scattered rain
showers during the afternoon hours. With high pressure building in
early next week, a gradual drier trend is expected early to mid
next week with rain chances shifting east of the area.
Temperatures remain near normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Prevailing VFR conditions deteriorate this evening with MVFR
prevailing at all sites overnight and into Wednesday morning.
Brief IFR will be possible in heavier showers. Thunderstorm
chances at terminals is low with the highest probability in the
vicinity of CHA. Improving conditions are expected late in the
period as the bulk of rain shifts eastward with more isolated to
scattered light rain showers by Wednesday afternoon. Winds remain
from the SSW/SW today and tonight before shifting to the WSW by
mid-day Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  81  66  80 /  80  70  30  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  79  65  78 /  90  80  40  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  78  64  78 /  90  70  30  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  78  64  76 /  90  80  50  40
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION...JB

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion