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Turtletown, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

848
FXUS64 KMRX 241643
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1243 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1217 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

- Periods of rain, and isolated thunderstorms, through Thursday. Flash flood risk will increase later today and Thursday as the ground continues to saturate. Small streams and poor drainage areas most at risk of seeing rapid rises.

- If thunderstorms occur today and tonight, a few strong to severe storms will be possible. Main risk is a low damaging wind threat. There is about a 5% chance of damaging winds within 25 miles of any location on this afternoon and evening, mainly west of Interstate 75 and south of Interstate 40.

- Friday and Saturday have shifted to a more rainy solution, but likely light precipitation. Low rain chances continue into next week as the upper-level low remains near the Southern Appalachians.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1217 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Low pressure system is approaching the area with southwest flow aloft and synoptic ascent. Widespread scattered rain showers increase in coverage this evening and overnight tonight with a dry slot on Thursday afternoon as the front moves east. With PW values near 2.0 inches and saturated atmospheric profiles favoring warm rain processes, tropical-like heavy rain rates will be possible with localized flooding across flood prone locations this evening through Thursday morning. The severe threat continues to diminish with very limited instability this afternoon, although a low 5% risk of damaging winds continues across our far south and west corners of the forecast area near the southern plateau.

By Thursday afternoon, widespread precipitation will be east of the area with scattered diurnal showers expected later in the day as the upper-level low swings into the region. This upper-level low becomes cutoff on Friday and into Saturday with weak steering flow keeping it over the region. A mix of clouds and sun will be expected each day with mostly dry mornings and scattered rain showers during the afternoon hours. With high pressure building in early next week, a gradual drier trend is expected early to mid next week with rain chances shifting east of the area. Temperatures remain near normal.

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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Prevailing VFR conditions deteriorate this evening with MVFR prevailing at all sites overnight and into Wednesday morning. Brief IFR will be possible in heavier showers. Thunderstorm chances at terminals is low with the highest probability in the vicinity of CHA. Improving conditions are expected late in the period as the bulk of rain shifts eastward with more isolated to scattered light rain showers by Wednesday afternoon. Winds remain from the SSW/SW today and tonight before shifting to the WSW by mid-day Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 81 66 80 / 80 70 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 79 65 78 / 90 80 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 68 78 64 78 / 90 70 30 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 78 64 76 / 90 80 50 40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. &&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM....JB AVIATION...JB

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion

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