Tucker, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

081
FXUS64 KLZK 010524
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
-Sunny skies are expected through this weekend with a few afternoon
diurnal cumulus and possible longer.
-Mainly dry conditions will prevail through this weekend and
possibly longer.
-Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm averaging roughly
 4 to 6 degrees for high temperatures through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
High pressure continues to hold a firm grasp across much of the mid
south early this morning. Latest deterministic guidance shows
ridging will stay in place through Wednesday. By Wednesday night
into Thursday, a weak upper disturbance will round the periphery
of the upper trough over the east coast coupled with an increase
in surface moisture bringing a chance for an isolated shower or
thunderstorm on Thursday to parts of Arkansas. As previously
stated, confidence model solutions for Thursday remains low.
As the upper trough over the east coast moves off shore, an upper
low/inverted trough forms over southern AL/N FL sometime on
Friday into the weekend. The GFS solution shows the low/inverted
trough meandering northwest into the mid south by this weekend and
may bring some isolated POPs to the eastern part of the state.
The ECMWF solution shows the upper low/inverted trough drifting
westward along the gulf coast with no sensible impacts to weather
in the state. At the end of the upcoming weekend into early next
week, both the ECMWF and GFS solutions show a deepening trough
over the western US, but vary on the eastward progression of the
trough. This will allow south to southwest flow to set up over
Arkansas with continued dry conditions and light winds.
Temperatures will continue to be seasonally warm for late
September into early October averaging roughly 4 to 6 degrees
above normal for climatological highs each afternoon. Lows each
night will range from the upper 50s to lower to mid 60s each night
across the state through early next week. Dry conditions are
expected to persist beyond Thursday through the rest of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Satellite early this morning shows some mid and high level cloudiness
over parts of eastern and southeastern Arkansas associated with
an upper level disturbance over the gulf coast region. No
precipitation is expected over the state and the cloudiness
should push east of the state later this morning. Light and
variable winds are expected today with some afternoon diurnal CU.
VFR conditions will prevail through the entire forecast period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  63  90  62 /   0   0  10   0
Camden AR         89  65  88  62 /   0  10  20   0
Harrison AR       84  61  85  60 /   0   0  10   0
Hot Springs AR    88  66  88  63 /   0   0  20   0
Little Rock   AR  88  68  87  64 /   0   0  10   0
Monticello AR     91  68  90  64 /   0  10  10   0
Mount Ida AR      89  63  88  62 /   0   0  20   0
Mountain Home AR  87  62  88  61 /   0   0  10   0
Newport AR        90  65  90  63 /   0   0  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     90  66  90  62 /   0   0  10   0
Russellville AR   90  65  90  63 /   0   0  10   0
Searcy AR         89  66  90  62 /   0   0  10   0
Stuttgart AR      89  68  89  64 /   0   0  10   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...76
AVIATION...76

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion