750 FXUS64 KOUN 241820 AFDOUNArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 120 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- Scattered light rain/isolated storms diminishing by this evening.
- Light patchy fog possible late tonight across southeast Oklahoma.
- Drier & cooler air mass will stay in place through Thursday.
- Warm again Friday into the weekend with above normal temperatures.
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.NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Our upper trough will continue to dig through tonight. Some weak forcing in the mid-levels of the trough could result in scattered light rain diminishing by sundown. Northern Oklahoma could also see a few thunderstorms through afternoon heating although weak instability should keep any convection well below severe as well as fairly isolated. Down at the surface we are post-frontal with breezy north winds bringing in a cooler and drier air mass with below normal temperatures. Much cooler tonight under decreasing cloudiness and lighter winds backing northwest. Temperatures will fall into the 50s areawide with the coolest air (lower 50s) across northwest Oklahoma. Low probability (20%) using DESI guidance for patchy radiational fog developing across portions of east-central through southeast Oklahoma toward mid-morning Thursday ending within a few hours after sunrise.
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.SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Light north winds on Thursday as high pressure builds in with the upper troughs axis now displaced to our east. Will see CU developing in the afternoon with temperatures perhaps slightly warmer approaching seasonably normal (lower to mid 80s) for late September days. Cooler again Thursday night under clear skies and calm winds with widespread 50s again for lows. The pattern starts to change on Friday becoming warmer with upper ridging starting to build in from the west and a shift of south winds down at the surface. Will see warm temperatures on Friday afternoon rising just above normal.
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.LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Dry and seasonably warm weather will dominate the southern Plains this weekend into at least early next week as upper ridging centers itself overhead. Highs will approach 90 in some spots Saturday and Sunday, dropping a few degrees Monday and Tuesday as models suggest a backdoor front will try to work its way into the area.
Ware
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.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Scattered showers and maybe a storm or two will continue to be possible across parts of northern OK this afternoon with the chances ending by this evening. MVFR ceilings are expected to gradually improve later this afternoon and evening. Breezy northern winds will become light this evening as sfc high settles into parts of the Southern Plains. These light winds are expected to continue into the morning. There are some hints that some BR could develop in a few places with KDUA having the most potential. However, there is enough uncertainty right now that do not have a mention in any TAFs right now.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 59 80 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 56 83 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 60 83 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 52 79 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 56 81 57 84 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 62 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
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.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. &&
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NEAR TERM...68 SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...25
NWS OUN Office Area Forecast Discussion