Tivydale, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

376
FXUS64 KEWX 190612
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
112 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Continued warm through the weekend with a few isolated showers and
storms possible.
- High forecast uncertainty for rain chances next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
Relatively quiet conditions continue across South Central Texas in
the short term period. Overall, expect dry conditions through
Saturday though low chances do exist for a few isolated showers or
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening as we have seen previous days.
Near to above normal high temperatures continue each afternoon from
the upper 80s to mid 90s. Lows range from the mid 60s to low
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
Southeasterly flow continues Sunday bringing increased moisture
allowing for low rain chances over the coastal plains approaching
the I-35 corridor during the afternoon and evening. Forecast
uncertainty remains high for next week as models struggle with the
track of an upper level low. The GFS and its ensemble are trending
towards a drier solution with upper ridging moving east over South
Central Texas. The ECMWF continues some hope for rain with ridging
remaining to the west and an upper low moving over the southern
Plains Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a cold front towards the
area. With poor model agreement, precipitation chances have
been lowered for the early to mid-week timeframe and remain
below 50 percent. Low NBM rain chances remain in the forecast
beyond Wednesday and with little agreement in the overall
synoptic pattern late next week felt no reason to remove them
just yet. Temperatures remain relatively steady in the extended
forecast with near or above normal highs each day.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
All terminals will be VFR through the upcoming TAF period. Winds
overnight will be light and variable in the Austin and San Antonio
areas and from the southeast at 5-10 kts at DRT. Southeasterly winds
will return to Austin and San Antonio by around noon. We saw some
brief MVFR/IFR clouds Thursday morning, and there is a low chance
for a repeat of this, but the probability is too low to include in
the TAFs. There is also a less than 20% of showers or thunderstorms
this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  95  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  95  71  96 /   0  10   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  95  71  96 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            69  92  71  91 /   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  95  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  94  71  94 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             68  95  70  94 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  96  71  96 /   0  10   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  94  71  94 /   0  10   0  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  95  73  95 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           72  96  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...05

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion