Three Way Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

035
FXUS64 KMEG 071056
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
556 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 547 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
- Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday
  night. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding
  along and north of I-40 through Tuesday morning.
- A cold front will pass through Tuesday afternoon and evening,
  bringing cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week.
  Highs are expected to be in the 70s from Wednesday through
  Friday.
- Temperatures will warm above normal this weekend with highs
  reaching into the mid 80s by Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
A surface low is tracking slowly north, roughly along the MS River
this evening. This system has a plume of tropical moisture
associated with it and PWs well above 2 inches. This is greater
than the 99.5 percentile for this time of year. Since this
morning parts of east-central Arkansas have received over 6
inches of rain with much of it falling in the last 3 hours as a
band of heavy rain slowly pushes north with the surface low.
The surface low will track into NW TN by sunrise and then skirt
east along the KY/TN border before moving into northern Middle
TN/southern Ky around noon. CAMs have a good handle on the band of
heavy rain which will slowly shift north and then east along the
low track. QPF totals of 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts
are expected from NE AR across the MO Bootheel into NW TN through
Tuesday morning. This area has a slight risk of excessive rainfall
with the potential for flash flooding through about mid-morning
Tuesday.
The heaviest rain will shift east with the surface low by Tuesday
afternoon. Additional isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm development, mainly east of the MS River, is
expected as a cold front pushes through the region Tuesday
afternoon and evening.
High pressure with dry and cool weather will return for Wednesday
and continue through the end of the week with highs in the 70s
and lows in the 50s. A few upper 40s are expected along the KY/MO
border on Thursday and Friday mornings. Dry weather will continue
for the foreseeable future as upper ridging builds over the
region and temps warm well above normal this weekend into early
next week. Highs will likely be back into the mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025
MVFR and IFR CIGS are the primary concern this period.
Intermittent -SHRA will impact the terminals through much of the
period, tapering off around 00z. As rain chances dwindle, a brief
return to VFR is being displayed. Thereafter, a surface low
will wrap back around and quickly fill in cloud decks around
1000-3000 ft. If any showers happen to redevelop on the wrap
around, that could lower conditions back to IFR once more.
Once the low and attendant cold front clear the area, expect a
gradual return to VFR with northerly prevailing winds.
DNM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Wetting rains will continue through Tuesday. Moist fuels and
above average relative humidity values will keep fuel concerns
low through the remainder of the week.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...DNM

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion