Terry, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

933
FXUS64 KJAN 241109 AAA
AFDJAN
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
609 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The primary concern for this forecast will be with the potential
for marginally severe storms through today into tonight over the
entire forecast area, and possibly Thursday over far southeast
portions of the area. Thereafter, significant weather hazard
impacts are not anticipated through early next week.
Today through Thursday: In the near term, a complex of storms over
central Arkansas early this morning will develop southeastward
toward northwest portions of the forecast area, but it is expected
these storms will weaken around daybreak with emphasis on new
storm development shifting upstream during the afternoon in
association with a shortwave trough crossing the region. It
appears storms will organize ahead of the surface cold front
along the MS River during the early afternoon, and then the
convective system should track steadily eastward across MS during
the mid/late afternoon into the early evening. The combination of
weak height falls, moderate levels of instability, and at least
marginal levels of deep layer wind shear, continue to support a
marginal risk for damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to
quarter size.
Timing for today`s marginal severe weather event continues to be
a challenge and have made some adjustments in our messaging based
on obs and near term guidance trends. Confidence has increased
some that the environment will be less impacted by the early
morning convection over northwest portions of the area, and this
would allow for greater coverage of storms this afternoon during
peak heating. Because of this, have pushed back timing some in our
severe weather graphic. Additionally, keep in mind that a few
storms may linger early Thursday morning and perhaps redevelop
during peak heating over far southeast portions of the area. Will
hold off on formally messaging this given the uncertainty with the
near term scenario, but we may eventually need another graphic
for Thursday roughly along/SE of the I-59 corridor. In terms of
rainfall, locally heavy downpours could create some minor ponding
issues, but the recent dry weather should limit any flash flood
concerns.
Thursday night through Tuesday night: The trough will shift east
and be followed by dry and milder air as we go into the weekend,
but the upper level pattern becomes less predictable early next
week as the trough may cutoff and meander per latest global model
guidance. In any case, temperatures will be near typical values
for the end of September. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Currently we have ceilings down around 1,000ft with areas south of
I-20 seeing a bit lower and along and north of I-20 a bit higher.
These ceilings are more entrenched/thicker than yesterday`s so
expect ceilings to linger an two or three hours after sunrise,
instead of the usual rapid dissipation. Around 15Z we will see
thunderstorms develop and push in from our northwestern quadrant;
KGLH is already experiencing convective impacts. This line of
strong thunderstorms will be in our central zones by 22Z and reach
our southern areas a few hours after that. As always expect
intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions with this convective activity.
All thunder should clear out by tonight, however; with the
significant wetting brought to the forecast area expect
ceilings/fog redeveloping in the early morning hours. Tough to say
what category this low level stratus will settle in to so plan
for IFR/MVFR conditions at the moment./OAJ/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  71  85  65 /  80  70  40  10
Meridian      91  70  86  64 /  60  70  60  20
Vicksburg     88  70  85  65 /  80  60  30  10
Hattiesburg   93  72  87  67 /  60  60  70  30
Natchez       88  69  85  65 /  80  70  40  10
Greenville    83  68  83  62 /  90  40  20  10
Greenwood     86  68  85  63 /  80  50  30  10
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
EC/EC/OAJ

NWS JAN Office Area Forecast Discussion