Tavernier, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

873
FXUS62 KKEY 300250
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1050 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 939 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
It has been a mostly uneventful evening across the Florida Keys as
Tropical Storm Imelda continues to slowly track away from our
area. Wind is still the headlining feature of our weather as fresh
breezes out of the northwest have been holding steady near 15 mph
along the Lower and Middle Keys, and 15 to 20 mph along the Upper
Keys. Marine platforms have also been sustained at 15 to 20 knots,
or 17 to 23 mph. The portions of the Florida Straits to the east
of the Upper Keys are likely experiencing breezes near 20 knots,
but we do not have an in situ observation in that area. As TS
Imelda continues to move farther away from our area, breezes will
briefly slack before freshening again as the pressure gradient
tries to find some kind of balance. This does not mean much for
island communities as there are no wind related hazards in effect,
but a Small Craft Advisory is still in effect for portions of the
Florida Straits east of the Upper Keys. Across the rest of our
local waters, excluding the deep Gulf, Small Craft SHould
Exercise Caution headlines are still in place.
The 00Z KKEY sounding showed an abundance of dry air aloft, and
calculated a PWAT value of 1.26", a third of an inch less than the
sounding from 12Z this morning. Automated observations along the
Keys show temperatures in the mid 80s, except in the lower 80s in
the Upper Keys where a steady line of light showers has kept the
air cooler. Dew points are in the mid to upper 70s, so even though
the dew point may be a little sticky, it hasn`t felt horrible
outside. Some of our forecasters have caught themselves mentioning
that the weather has been nice this evening. No changes or updates
are needed with this forecast update.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 939 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for portions of the Florida
Straits east of the Upper Keys. Elsewhere, Small Craft Should
Exercise Caution due to west to northwest winds 15 to 20 knots,
except in the deep Gulf waters where winds are near 15 knots. From
synopsis, Tropical Storm Imelda, located east of the northeast
coast of Florida, will continue to move slowly northward, then
make a sharp eastward turn Tuesday into the west-central North
Atlantic. Moderate to fresh northwesterly breezes overnight and
Tuesday will slacken by Tuesday night. High pressure over the
Eastern Seaboard will slowly slide eastward into the western North
Atlantic, with mainly gentle northwesterly breezes eventually
veering to the northeast to east for the middle to latter part of
the work week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 939 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with FEW to
SCT sky conditions near FL025. Northwest surface winds near 10
knots will continue to gust to near 20 knots, but a narrow window
of slackening winds may occur before sunrise. The TAF package
remains dry, but very isolated, light showers may pop up due to
our proximity to Tropical Storm Imelda.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  80  91  78  89 /  20  20  30  30
Marathon  80  90  78  88 /  20  20  30  30
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Tuesday for GMZ052-072.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....DR
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion