Tamarack, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

125
FXUS63 KDLH 212324
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
624 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of scattered showers with an isolated thunderstorm
  continue through this evening. There is a chance for afternoon
  showers and thunderstorms Monday, mainly over the Arrowhead
  and portions of northwest Wisconsin.
- Additional rounds of overnight fog are possible tonight into
  Monday morning, and again early Tuesday morning. Dense Fog
  Advisories may be needed.
- Largely dry with slightly above normal temperatures Tuesday
  and beyond.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
An upper low is moving through northern Minnesota this
afternoon, as noted by the spinning nature of the clouds on
satellite. To the east of the circulation, scattered showers
have developed in an seasonably moist and unstable airmass for
the 21st of September. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm given the
forcing associated with the closed low and CAPE values of
1000J/kg or greater. Wind fields are weak with less than 20kts
of bulk shear. This will hinder storm growth, and strong to
severe storms are not expected. Shower activity diminishes this
evening across Minnesota, with low chances of showers and a
storm continuing over portions of northwest Wisconsin overnight
as the upper low slides eastward toward the Great Lakes. For
Tuesday, the upper low will be over Lake Superior with a
secondary shortwave diving southeastward on the back side of the
trough. Ahead of drier air arriving, isolated to scattered
showers and a couple storms are possible over the Arrowhead and
east of US-63 in northwest Wisconsin.
Low level moisture remains high through at least Tuesday
morning, with continued weak northeast flow off Lake Superior.
This will allow for low clouds and fog to impact the area both
tomorrow and Tuesday mornings. Locations up the North Shore,
especially the hilltops, remain entrenched in fog/low clouds
this afternoon, and expect fog to quickly spread this evening
and overnight over much of the area. Dense Fog Advisories are
possible again, especially along the shore lines and at the head
of the lake.
Upper level ridging extends into southern Canada, arching over
the Great Lakes toward Hudson Bay mid week. This will allow
bluer skies to return to the Northland, as drier air spreading
southward will be chasing the clouds away. High pressure remains
in place through the week, keeping conditions rain free, with
above normal temperatures through at least this week of
September. That means highs in the low to mid 70s by the end of
week, roughly 10 degrees above normal. Additionally, overnight
lows will be around 10 degrees above normal, with lows in the
upper 40s and 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
An upper level low is slowly churning across the Northland this
afternoon spawning a few showers with isolated storms. This activity
will largely dissipate after sunset. There may still be one more
burst of storms possible overnight near HYR as a shortwave moves
overhead. Elsewhere across the region, low level moisture mixing
with light winds looks to bring a favorable set up for widespread
dense fog. This fog may be slow to leave tomorrow morning and linger
longest along the shores of Lake Superior and potentially DLH.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Fairly benign marine conditions are expected through not only the
next 48 hours but most of the 7 day forecast. Some passing rain
showers are expected this afternoon and evening, with an
isolated thunderstorm possible. There may be some scattered
showers on Monday afternoon as well. Light northeast winds
persist today with waves continuing to come down. Light
northeast winds less than 10 knots continue into Monday, with a
land/lake breeze pattern starting to set up for mid week week.
No strong winds over 10 knots are currently expected and waves
should largely remain at a foot or less once they come down
through today. Rounds of dense fog are likely into early week
and marine dense fog advisories may be needed.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for MNZ021.
WI...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...HA

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion