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Taft, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

918
FXUS62 KMLB 031917
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 317 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

- Wet weather pattern next several days with increased winds/moisture off the Atlantic supporting locally heavy rainfall. Localized flooding will be a concern through the weekend and possibly into early next week, especially along the coast where a Flood Watch has been issued through at least Saturday night.

- Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions including life- threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet, and minor to moderate beach erosion especially near times of high tide, will continue through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Sloppy pattern over Florida as a weakening cutoff low meanders in the base of ridging over the eastern US. Somewhat elongated surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic seaboard roughly parallels the coast, with a fairly tight north-northeasterly pressure gradient on the southern side draped across Florida, resulting in east-northeast winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph inland and 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph along the coast. This brisk onshore flow laden with low- level moisture is whipping up scattered to at times numerous quick moving showers, but drier air aloft is keeping nearly all this activity low-topped. Have seen a few sporadic lightning storms down south closer to higher moisture associated with a remnant frontal boundary extending from Southeast Florida to The Bahamas, but that`s about it. This is also where banding/training of moderate to heavy showers has been occurring most frequently, but given the lack of deep moisture and forcing in the immediate area, rainfall rates have rarely exceeded 1"/hr since earlier this morning. Latest HREF/RRFS 6-hr 90th percentile accumulations are topping out at 2-3", indicating the threat for flash flooding today has decreased and today`s Slight Risk for excessive rainfall has been dropped. That said, this is a marathon not a sprint, and the cumulative effects of rounds/bands of heavy rainfall over several days could gradually lead to minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage area as soils become saturated and the effectiveness of drainage decreases. We`re already seeing some recurring flooding in low-lying areas, particularly in spots prone to flooding along the Intracoastal Waterway as increasing tides as the king tides approach compound the issue. The coastal corridor remains highlighted in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall, a Flood Watch remains in effect for all East Central Florida coastal counties, and the Coastal Flood Advisory has been extended to include the whole coast and Intracoastal Waterways.

At the beaches, large breaking wave of 5-8 ft will continue to pound the coast, producing high/rough surf and numerous life- threatening rip currents. Wave run-up to the dune line will continue to cause minor to moderate erosion near the times of high tide which will occur between 4-7am and again 4-7pm (the higher of the two) the next few days.

Saturday-Sunday...The cutoff low aloft further erodes as ridging over the western Atlantic and eastern seaboard in response to troughing over the western US. Surface high pressure over the eastern US centered near the Mid-Atlantic seaboard shifts slowly offshore, but the tight easterly pressure gradient on the southern side of the high remains draped across Florida and the local Atlantic waters. A weak surface low has developed over the Bahamas about 300 miles southeast of Saint Lucie Inlet, which NHC continues to only give a very low (10%) chance of tropical development due to unfavorable upper level winds. Confidence in the evolution of this feature has been low due to weak forcing and lack of a developed feature, which is unfortunate because it has considerable implications for our forecast this weekend and beyond. Now that a feature has finally developed seeing better model agreement from the 12Z suite, with both the GFS and ECM bringing a very weak low/wave west-northwest towards South Florida, further tightening the pressure gradient across Central Florida that would continue hazardous coastal and marine conditions, and bringing additional moisture that would support a heavy rainfall threat. However, the pace this plays out is slower than previous guidance suggested, and currently seeing the greatest potential for heavy rainfall shifting into Sunday, but will need a couple more forecast cycles before we can more confidently say when and where (and frankly if) a scenario supporting substantial heavy rainfall will materialize. In the meantime, the brisk onshore flow will remain sufficient enough to whip up scattered to numerous onshore moving showers regardless of development/evolution of the wave/low, banding/training of moderate to heavy showers will remain possible, and locations that receive multiple rounds will become increasingly susceptible to flooding. In particular are coastal Volusia and Martin counties where soils are reaching saturation. The East Central Florida coast continues to be outlined in Marginal (level 1 of 4) and Slight (level 2 of 4) risks for excessive rainfall where coastal convergence maximizes the threat, a Flood Watch remains in effect for all ECFL coastal counties, and a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for all ECFL coastal zones, including the Intracoastal Waterways.

Beach and marine conditions will remain hazardous, and could even worsen depending how the low/wave evolves. High Surf Advisories, Rip Current Statements, and Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. We are also monitoring points along the St. Johns River where heavy rainfall could lead to additional river flooding. The river has already reached Moderate Flood Stage at Astor.

Monday-Thursday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Moist onshore flow is forecast to continue into early next week then eventually some drier air is forecast to move in, but there confidence when this happens is low at this time. The official forecast based on 06Z guidance starts drying by Tuesday, but the incoming 12Z guidance hints at prolonging high rain chances a bit longer, and the threat for heavy rainfall. Model guidance is at least consistent showing another strong high pressure developing over the eastern CONUS mid week, keeping a brisk onshore flow through the week, then late in the week bringing back moisture supporting onshore moving showers.

&&

.MARINE... Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

(Modified Previous Discussion) Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions are occurring over the local Atlc waters as tight NE to E pressure gradient around sfc high along the eastern seaboard supports ENE winds at 20-25 knots. These winds and long period swell have built seas 7-12 feet and these very hazardous conditions will persist through the weekend. A weak low has developed over The Bahamas, and could further tighten the pressure gradient, but there is some uncertainty how much and when. There should be some relaxation of the pressure gradient early next week as winds turn E-SE behind the departing low. While speeds should dip below 20 knots esp across the southern waters, seas will be slow to subside. A further extension of the SCA appears likely for the offshore waters into early next week. Meanwhile, moisture increases locally which will promote a high coverage of showers and isolated storms containing heavy rain and cloud to water lightning this weekend into early next week. Some drying should eventually move in from the northeast mid-week but it looks short- lived.

&&

.AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Showers with isolated lightning storms continue to push onshore and across the interior this afternoon. Have maintained VCSH across all terminals through the period as rounds of showers persist. While VFR conditions will dominate, brief MVFR conditions in passing showers will be possible. Due to the brief nature of the impacts from these showers, have continued not to include TEMPOs at this time. However, will continue to monitor for any localized banding of showers, and a few amendments can`t be ruled out. Breezy and gusty east-northeast winds of 15-20 KT with gusts of 25-30 KT this afternoon and early evening. Winds will remain gusty along the coast overnight with gusts up to 20 KT, while winds will decrease to around 10 KT across the interior. East to northeast winds will increase by mid morning on Saturday to 15-20 KT with gusts of 25-30 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 83 74 84 / 50 60 60 70 MCO 72 84 74 86 / 30 50 40 60 MLB 75 84 75 84 / 50 60 60 60 VRB 75 84 75 85 / 50 60 60 60 LEE 72 84 73 85 / 20 40 30 60 SFB 73 84 74 85 / 40 60 50 70 ORL 73 84 74 85 / 40 50 40 70 FPR 75 84 75 86 / 50 60 60 60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for FLZ041-141-154-159-164- 247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159- 164-347-447-647-747.

High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for AMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley AVIATION...Watson

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion

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