Swan Creek, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

582
FXUS63 KDVN 260941
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
441 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance for fog this morning, some of which could become dense
  mainly in river valleys and low lying areas. More fog is
  possible Saturday morning as well.
- Extended period of dry conditions and above normal
  temperatures expected today through early October, with
  comfortable humidity.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Upper level ridging builds into the area today as a rex block
looks to setup for the at least the next 5 to 6 days. A wave
moving across the ridge axis will drag a weak/diffuse cold front
towards the area later in the short term. Before this occurs,
weak flow and high pressure will be the main weather
influencer in the short term. High pressure across the area
coincided with a drier airmass as well. Today, we expect to see
more of what we saw yesterday. A lot of sun, temperatures
warming into the 80s with lower humidity. From a sensible
weather perspective, this will be a great end of the work week.
Like this morning and yesterday morning, some patchy fog cannot
be ruled out tonight and into Saturday morning. Guidance has the
best chance for this to occur in NW IL. Have added some patchy
fog in the grids to account for this.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Blocking pattern is forecast to take shape as ridging builds
into the area. Tropical activity to the SE will help to keep
this block in place for most of the long term. While a wave to
our north tries to bring in a cold front on Saturday, very dry
air will result in no precip. The rest of the period will be
quiet. Overall through the long term we have mild air aloft,
and dry soil/air. This will result in large diurnal temperature
swings. Lows in the mid to upper 50s are forecast each day,
with highs in the lower to mid 80s (upper 80s possible Monday).
This will certainly be great weather for being outdoors. We will
need to keep an eye on any fog potential as well.
Main takeaway, it looks to be a gorgeous end to September and
beginning of October.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 437 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Mist has been slow to develop today. As such have pushed the
tempos back an hour. May need to pull tempos early if nothing
develops around 12z. Otherwise, VFR conditions with light winds
are expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The latest 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate
Prediction Center shows very high probabilities (70%) of above
normal temperatures for the Oct 2nd to Oct 8th timeframe. Normal
highs for this period are in the upper 60s/lower 70s and normal
lows are in the mid to upper 40s. While above normal
temperatures are likely, the humidity levels will be tolerable.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Gibbs
CLIMATE...Gross

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion