848 FXUS66 KSTO 042059 AFDSTOArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 159 PM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS... Dry weather continues this weekend and periods of breezy north winds. Temperatures will gradually warm over the weekend and into early next week. Chances for unsettled and cooler weather return late next week.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
* TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
- Warm and dry conditions prevail through this weekend and through the middle of next week as upper troughing remains in place.
- High temperatures will trend warmer through the weekend with Valley high temperatures in the 80s by Monday and Tuesday, alongside Minor HeatRisk. Temperatures then trend cooler on Wednesday.
- Periods of breezy north to east winds today through Tuesday, during the morning and late evening hours. Breeziest areas will be through the northern and central Sacramento Valley, as well as through gaps/canyons over the western slopes of the Sierra.
* THURSDAY-FRIDAY
- Clusters and ensembles depict an upper trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late next week which will bring chances for light precipitation and cooler temperatures, however forecast confidence is low due to disagreement on timing.
- A few solutions depict the low moving onshore during the Friday-Saturday period, bringing the aforementioned precipitation, while other solutions show it stalling offshore resulting in dry weather continuing early next weekend.
- Precipitation impacts look to be minimal, with the NBM advertising a 30 to 45% chance of precipitation amounts 0.1" or more over the Valley, foothills, and mountains.
- Cooler temperatures expected heading into the weekend.
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Breezy northerly wind gusts 15-20 kts across portions of the northern and central Sacramento Valley until 00z Sunday and again after 06z Sunday. Northeast to east wind gusts 15-25 kts over the mountains after 06z Sunday. Elsewhere, surface winds generally remain at or below 12 kts.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
$$
NWS STO Office Area Forecast Discussion