Stovall, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

527
FXUS64 KMEG 211723
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1223 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
-Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon,
 with an unsettled pattern bringing daily rain chances through the
 week.
-An increasing potential for strong to severe thunderstorms and
 heavy rain exists for Wednesday and Thursday, especially for
 areas along and west of the Mississippi River.
-A significant pattern change late next week will bring much
 cooler, fall-like temperatures to the Mid-South.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The latest radar scan shows mostly clear returns across the
region. The exception is a few trailing showers near  the TN
River. The latest GOES visible satellite shows a weak MCV over
southeast Missouri moving east with some trailing mid level
stratus over northern portions of the Mid-South.
Hi-res guidance is consistent with another round of diurnally-
driven scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly
along and north of the I-40 corridor. With weak shear in place
and only pockets of up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, only short-lived
convection is expected. The large majority of convection will
taper off around sundown with a few isolated percolating storms
continuing through about midnight.
Unsettled weather will begin early Monday and persist through
late week across the Mid-South as a few shortwaves pivot through
the region. The first wave will be weak and slow to move through
on Monday into Tuesday. Largely scattered and disorganized showers
and thunderstorms are expected in the morning and afternoon
hours. A Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect
for Tuesday, but overall parameters remain on the lower end at
best. Up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will be available in the afternoon
with only 15 to 20 knots of shear. Better shear will arrive after
sundown, but instability will be waning. Despite the low-end
shear, a few strong thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon.
The weather pattern for Wednesday and Thursday presents an
increasingly complex scenario with respect to strong to severe
thunderstorms and rainfall totals. The upper level pattern
remains quite complicated and while uncertainty remains in the
details, model consensus is growing. An upper level low will roll
down the front side of the Rockies and eject into the Southern
Plains on Wednesday morning. LREF guidance supports a surface low
developing to our west and advecting a pocket of higher 70F+
dewpoints poleward along the Mississippi River. The potential for
severe weather is increasing for Wednesday with joint
probabilities of SBCAPE >500 J/kg, CIN 25 knots
of bulk shear in the 30-40% range for areas along and west of the
Mississippi River. Storm mode is hard to predict at this range,
but damaging winds, large hail, and a low tornado risk look to be
in play if all the parameters continue the current trend. Early
rainfall totals are in the 1 to 3 inch range Tuesday night
through Thursday morning with LREF probabilities for 2 inches or
more between 40 and 70% along and north of I-40. This would be
very beneficial rain for areas in the worst drought conditions in
the Mid-South.
The long range forecast will be dominated by an expanding upper
level low over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Several lobes of
energy will rotate around the upper low keeping rain chances
elevated and temperatures cool. This pattern will bring a
definitive shift to cooler, fall-like conditions late next week.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions will prevail across the airspace. Isolated
thunderstorms will move over the Mid-South this afternoon through
early evening. Confidence was only high enough to brush PROB30s
across all TAF sites. Another round of isolated showers and
thunderstorms will impact terminals beginning tomorrow morning.
South/southwest winds sub 10 kts will continue over the next 30
hours or so.
AEH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Wetting rain chances will tick upwards early next week with
widespread rainfall returning by the middle of next week with a
cold front. Drought improving rainfall will occur for areas along
and north of the I-40 corridor. Conditions will trend cooler
behind the front late next week.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion