Stoneboro, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

460
FXUS62 KCAE 270523
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
123 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and storms possible again today. Rain chances
lower some for Sunday, but into early next week with lower
temperatures. Heavy rainfall and strong winds are possible early
next week as we monitor tropical development.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Slow moving trough and front brings additional shower and
  storm chances today.
Through daybreak: A line of light to moderate showers continues
to move through the eastern Midlands and PeeDee. Expect these
showers to slowly move to the east through the early morning
hours. Additional activity developing in the Upstate could work
its way into our forecast area before daybreak as well.
Today and Tonight: Upper trough continues to slowly move
eastward and is showing signs of developing a cutoff low over
northern Alabama. An associated surface front over the Upstate
is also forecast to crawl eastward and become more diffuse. As
a result, periodic showers and storms are possible through the
day. However, the highest PWATs are forecast to shift eastward
into the Low Country, lowering the chances for excessive rain in
the area. That said, some locally heavy rainfall remains
possible today. Latest hi-res guidance shows that showers could
linger into tonight, but diminishing. With cloud cover expected
all day, temperatures are forecast to be relatively cool in the
low 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Dry Sunday morning but an increase in clouds and rain showers
  is expected by Sunday night.
In stark contrast to the long term period, the short term period
continues to feature pretty good model agreement. The upper level
trough axis is forecast to remain to our west during the day on
Sunday, although it should shift slightly closer to the area through
the day. This is likely to result in slightly drier and quieter
weather across the area, especially during the day. We may actually
start off sunny before seeing high and mid level clouds increase as
PTC9 starts to become intertwined with the upper level trough. As
this occurs, moisture transport vectors are forecast to increase in
intensity across the coastal plane, with showers likely developing
by Sunday evening across our eastern counties. Highs will probably
be slightly below normal as winds should be out of the northeast
through the day with increasing cloud cover aiding in keeping things
cooler. Showers will be on the increase on Sunday night as PTC 9
continues to push closer & provides a solid source for tropical
moisture. Lows will likely be in the upper 60s to around 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Confidence in the forecast remains limited and dictated by the
  eventual track of PTC 9.
- Heavy rainfall looks likely Monday/Tuesday, but duration,
  amounts, and location is uncertain.
- Stay tuned to the forecast as confidence should increase over
  the next 24 hours with respect to PTC 9.
Confidence is slowly increasing in the forecast but there are a lot
of caveats with that statement. PTC 9 was officially designated as
of Friday afternoon and is forecast to begin secondarily influencing
our weather by Sunday night as the trough over the region interacts
with it. While guidance continues to trend towards one solution, the
forecast is challenging and highly dependent on when and where a
consolidated surface circulation develops for this system. As of
right now, it doesn`t have one and the longer it goes without
developing one, the better for our forecast locally. This is due to
another hurricane (Humberto) across the central Atlantic which
will be coming into view this weekend and interacting with PTC
9`s eventual circulation. The faster a surface low develops with
this, the more influence that the upper trough over the CONUS
will have on steering the eventual storm. However, if it
continues to lack a consolidated surface circulation, Humberto
will be able to continue pushing westward and have a greater
influence on the eventual track of PTC 9. The complexity of this
forecast leaves little to be said about specific impacts. It
does look increasingly likely that Monday and Tuesday will
feature heavy rainfall somewhere across the area as the upper
level trough combines with the moisture associated with PTC 9 to
yield widespread rain showers across the area.
Duration/intensity/location of the rain is will depend on how
close PTC 9 eventually gets. There really are a lot of question
marks still with this system, so stay tuned to the latest
forecasts. We should have a better idea of what exactly will
happen by the end of today (hopefully). Looking towards the
middle/end of this week, it continues to look like a strong
surface high pressure, with cool and dry air, should settle into
the eastern CONUS, providing us with our first taste of Fall.
But even confidence in that is only medium despite overwhelming
evidence to suggest it. There is just too much unknown with PTC
9 to have any real confidence in the forecast in the long term.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Periods of showers expected into Saturday. IFR to LIFR
conditions in stratus likely Saturday morning.
Light showers continue to pass over OGB to begin the TAF period.
Periodic showers remain possible through much of the period,
with the highest chances through about 18z. Will keep the VCSH
going for now. In addition to the periodic shower activity
overnight, fog and IFR to LIFR stratus appears more likely to
affect the terminals, though OGB may stay in the MVFR category.
Ceilings slowly improve through the day to VFR. Winds are
expected to be generally light from the south or southeast
through the much of the period before diminishing after 00z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Deep moisture remains in place this
weekend leading to likely rain chances and possible widespread
restrictions.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion