Steedman, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

444
FXUS62 KCAE 300004
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
804 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue to move through central South
Carolina today and into tomorrow. Confidence remains high that
Imelda`s track will shift east over the next 48 hours, keeping
the region unaffected. Drier and cooler conditions are
anticipated by midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Cool and rainy weather expected overnight and into Tuesday morning.
As is very evident in the water imagery tonight, the broad upper
level trough and TS Imelda continue to interact aloft, causing a
very impressive cirrus shield to overspread upstream into the
Northeast US. Like we have seen much of the day Monday, this is
helping reinforce zone of higher PWAT`s along the SC-NC coast and
some weak isentropic lift within the easterly flow below 500mb.
Like seen in the HREF, some waves of showers will continue this
evening and overnight but a relative lack of forcing or
instability should keep rain light and periodic. Imelda will
slowly start turning northeast overnight which steadily pull the
axis of highest PWAT`s away from the coast, but not far enough
to clear out rain chances until later Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Possible lingering showers on Tuesday with decreasing
  moisture
- Warmer Wednesday ahead of a front that will move through
  Wednesday night bringing a cooler and drier air mass
Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Imelda is expected to have
strengthened and moved further north but is forecast to turn to
the northeast and move away from the coast, having no impact on
our area. Weak upper troughing across the Mid Atlantic will also
shift down through the Carolinas by Tuesday night and the
deeper moisture will shift east of the forecast area with
diminishing showers across the area by evening. Overall not
expecting much in the way of precipitation but some lingering
showers may persist through the daytime hours with higher PWATs
around . The upper trough axis shifts east of the area overnight
which should end any chances of showers. Persistent cloud cover
and lingering showers should limit daytime heating with below
normal high temperatures ranging from the mid 70s north to
around 80 lower CSRA. Persistent northeasterly winds will offset
the cloud cover and lack of radiational cooling but expect
overnight lows in the lower 60s.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night: Fair and dry conditions expected
on Wednesday as the upper trough axis shifts south of the
forecast area and drier deep northerly flow develops. Upper
ridging will develop across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
region creating confluent 500mb flow which will drive a strong
high pressure system into New England and will drive a front
through the forecast area Wednesday night. Ahead of the front,
skies should be mostly sunny through the day with warmer
temperatures expected in the lower 80s. Low temperatures
Wednesday night with some cold advection should fall into the
50s ranging from the lower 50s north to upper 50s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Dry and cool conditions expected through the end of the week
- Possible increase in moisture and chances of rain late weekend
- Gradual warm up over the weekend
Fall like weather will descend over the region late this week
as strong high pressure builds down the east coast beneath a
building upper ridge aloft over the Ohio Valley. Ensemble
guidance shows the upper trough that shifts south of our area on
Wednesday retrograding over the Gulf Coast states and becoming
trapped there under the building upper ridge across the upper
Midwest into Ohio Valley as another upper trough moves into the
intermountain west. Ensemble PWATs fall well below normal
(around 50-70% of normal) Thu-Fri which will support a dry cool
air mass over the region with below normal temperatures. Highs
expected in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
There is more uncertainty over the weekend into Monday
regarding how quickly and how much moisture may return with
southeasterly flow above the surface developing by Saturday.
This may introduce some increased chances of isolated or
scattered showers by Sun/Mon but confidence is low at this time.
Temperatures should gradually warm late in the period with
strong upper heights over the region and surface high pressure
shifting offshore allowing for a more southeasterly flow.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Satellite showing plenty of cloud cover across the region as a
plume of mid and upper level moisture from Imelda streams
northward. In the lower levels, moisture from the Atlantic is
moving inland over top of a northerly surface flow. This is
aiding in the mvfr stratus deck that is situated beneath the
upper cloudiness. Dominant clouds overnight will be associated
with the low deck. Current mvfr cloud restrictions should last
for the next few hours at all taf locations, then the ceilings
are expected to drop down into ifr after 03z, remaining there
overnight and through much of Tuesday morning. Blended guidance
shows some improvement back into mvfr beginning by 18z. As for
visibilities, do not expect any widespread restrictions there,
but a period of light showers could occur late tonight at
cae/cub/ogb as on batch of rainfall moving inland and across
the northern Midlands and the Pee Dee. Only went with a Prob30
group for now to cover that. Ags/dnl expected to remain dry.
Winds through the period will remain mostly out of the north,
but wind speeds will be between 6 and 10 knots as the pressure
gradient remains somewhat tight. These winds should keep
visibilities up outside of any showers.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Probability of VFR conditions mid-
week is high with a drier pattern Wednesday through the end of
the week.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion