Stapleton, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

997
FXUS63 KLBF 220838
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
338 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances increase, especially  across central and western
  Nebraska late this afternoon through Tuesday evening.
- A few strong or perhaps severe thunderstorms will be possible
  late this afternoon and evening.
- Dry and mild/warm conditions are expected to develop Friday
  and then continue into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The weather will become more active today through Tuesday. Moisture
is in place with Satellite derived PWATS averaging around 1.2" this
morning. This is quite moist...about 135% of normal. A potent
shortwave will be moving southeastward across WY by late this
afternoon with a surface low deepening near the NE/KS south of the
Cambridge area. Meanwhile a cold front will be sagging southward
across northern Nebraska. Will say this is a somewhat complicated
set-up, but it does appear there will be the potential for a few
strong to severe storms across the area late this afternoon and into
this evening. As low-level convergence increases along the cold
front late this afternoon, this should become the focus for
convective development. Overall shear appears to be marginal (better
across south central into southeast Nebraska) but enough is there to
help with storm organization. A few instances of strong winds and
perhaps hail could occur with the strongest cells. The other concern
will be locally heavy rainfall with the high moisture content. In
fact that will likely become more of the concern as we head into the
overnight hours tonight.
As mentioned above, it is a bit complicated. The potent disturbance
across WY will move into CO this evening and then translate eastward
toward northwest KS and southwest NE by Tuesday morning. All models
indicate it will close off into a rather compact mid-level
circulation by Tuesday morning. It is unclear exactly how this will
evolve due to the expected downstream convection. Where this
circulation evolves will be crucial, as moisture/potential locally
heavy rainfall wraps back around onto the west side of the upper low
center. This perhaps won`t be know until this evening, with radar
trends being closely monitored as convection slows and tries to wrap
back to the west. Where this occurs (most likely across southwest
Nebraska into northwest Kansas) 2"+ rainfall amounts will be
possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The system will depart east of the area by Wednesday and should be
centered across the southern Great Lakes region by Thursday morning.
Dry northerly flow aloft will be in place across our area behind the
system. As we head into Friday and the weekend, ridging aloft will
begin to build across the area Friday and expand across the central
and southern plains this weekend. Looks to be a set-up for some nice
Fall weather. Highs will be in the mid 70s Wednesday and then
generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday into the weekend.
It looks to be a mainly dry period with the ridging aloft taking
hold.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska overnight and through the afternoon. The main
aviation concern overnight will be the potential development of
patchy fog across southwest and south central Nebraska, which may
briefly introduce MVFR conditions in vicinity of KLBF. Otherwise,
light wind and mid to high cloud cover is expected to last through
the morning and afternoon. By the evening, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop across the region, with rain lasting
overnight. This next round of moisture is expected to bring lower
ceilings, including MVFR to IFR conditions just beyond the effective
TAF period. However, if storms form earlier, there is potential MVFR
to IFR conditions begin near the end of this TAF period. Will make
adjustments as confidence in timing of storms increases.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Richie

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion