Stantonsburg, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

841
FXUS62 KRAH 291030
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
630 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will combine with the circulation around
Tropical Storm Imelda to bring a cool and moist northeast flow to
the region through late Tuesday. Chilly Canadian high pressure
centered over Quebec and New England will extend into our region on
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...
*Rain with Cool CAD-like Conditions
* Flooding Threat Continues to Diminish
Onshore flow north of Imelda will transport tropical moisture inland
through tonight, with PWATs of 2-2.25" and embedded upper-level
vorticity disturbances interacting with a lingering mid-level trough
and weak upper jet streak across the region. At the surface, a
stationary front will remain just offshore as high pressure wedges
down the Atlantic Seaboard.
Showers and rain will spread inland through the day and evening,
supported by isentropic lift and WAA from the east. Low-level
northeasterly flow and widespread stratus will suppress instability,
keeping rainfall rates and totals modest--- generally a half inch
across the southern coastal plain to one to two tenths across the
northern Piedmont. While the flash flood threat will be greatest
along the immediate coast, a non-zero threat persists inland, mainly
in low-lying or poor drainage areas, supporting the continued
Marginal risk in the ERO for central NC.
Highs will resemble a CAD regime, ranging from lower 70s in the
Piedmont to mid/upper 70s across the southern coastal plain. Lows
tonight in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...
* Lingering clouds and patchy light rain early, drying out during
  the afternoon and evening
Lingering highs PWATs and weak lift associated with the upper trough
will maintain widespread cloudiness and areas of light rain and
showers through the first half of Tuesday. As isentropic lift wanes
and low-level flow backs more NELY by afternoon, rain chances will
diminish, leading to mainly dry conditions by evening.
As Imelda turns east and moves out to sea Tuesday night, drier air
will advect into the area from the north, allowing for partial
clearing.
Highs will hold in the 70s, with breezy NELY winds gusting to 20 to
25 mph at times. Lows will fall in the 60s, with some upper 50s
possible across the northern Piedmont.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 AM Monday...
* Fair and dry weather arrives on Wednesday.
* Another taste of fall on Thursday and Friday with dry conditions
  and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
* The airmass moderates for the weekend.
A complicated upper-air pattern is present on Wednesday morning with
two tropical cyclones off the coast, an anomalous ridge across the
MO Valley and western Great Lakes with lingering upper troughiness
across the eastern Carolinas. The upper trough across the Carolinas
will settle south into GA and FL with ridging folding over into the
mid-Atlantic on Wednesday and into Wednesday night. This will result
in a transition day on Wednesday as dryer air moves into the region
and PW values drop from around 1.25 inches Wednesday morning to
between 0.5 and 0.75 inches by Thursday morning. Mostly cloudy skies
Wednesday morning will give way to a good deal of sunshine by
afternoon. No precipitation is expected and with more sunshine,
highs should moderate a bit with highs ranging from the lower 70s
near the VA border to the mid 70s in the Triad and Triangle and the
upper 70s across the south and in Fayetteville.
A strong Canadian high pressure system centered across easter Quebec
on Thursday morning will shift east and become centered off the New
England Coast by Friday night. The high will extend southwest and
into the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas on Wednesday night and continue
through Friday with perhaps the coolest airmass of the season. A
cool northeast flow will result in morning low-level thickness
values between 1345 and 1360m on Thursday and Friday mornings
resulting in lows in the lower to mid 50s in most locations and some
upper 40s near and north of Interstate 85. Highs will range in the
upper 60s to lower 70s on Thursday and the lower to mid 70s on
Friday. Skies will be partly to mostly clear during the period with
a northeast breeze.
Uncertainly increases for the weekend as the upper ridge slips
south and east and a weakness aloft/upper trough tries to develop
across the northern gulf. The result will be a strengthening
easterly flow of increasing moisture across FL, GA and the coastal
Carolinas which will try to lift north over the weekend, especially
on Sunday. Some guidance paints a limited threat of some patchy rain
or showers across southeastern areas on Sunday but the bulk of the
guidance is dry and will keep the forecast that way for now. The
airmass will moderate and moisten up a bit with dewpoints climbing
into the upper 50s to lower 60s by Sunday. Highs will range in the
mid 70s to around 80. -Blaes
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM Monday...
The lowering of ceilings to MVFR and IFR has been slower than
expected.
Onshore flow north of Imelda will transport tropical moisture
inland, leading to the development of widespread IFR ceilings across
the area into the morning hours as light rain spreads from east to
west. Once ceilings lower, they are expected to remain low through
the afternoon, with the potential for further lowering to LIFR
Monday evening/night.
Outlook: IFR to MVFR restrictions, with periods of rain will
continue into Tuesday. As Imelda turns east and moves out to sea
Tuesday night and into Wednesday, drier air will advect into the
area from the north, allowing a return of dry VFR conditions.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...CBL

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion