Springdale, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

599
FXUS64 KMEG 230442
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1142 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1125 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday
  evening will bring a low to medium risk of flash flooding,
  particularly along and north of I-40 where 2 to 4 inches of rain
  are forecast with isolated higher amounts.
- A severe weather threat will exist for eastern Arkansas Tuesday
  night as a storm complex moves in, followed by a broader threat
  for the entire area Wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of a
  cold front.
- A cold front will bring an end to the rain and storms by
  Thursday, ushering in slightly cooler and drier conditions for
  the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
We are currently in the midst of a lull in between waves of
convection as of 11:30 PM Monday. Latest surface analysis depicts
a very messy frontal pattern with little to no structure to it
over the Mid-South, which explains the current lull in radar
activity. However, moving into Tuesday afternoon, a relatively
strong yet nearly stationary cold front is projected to make its
approach from the Central Plains. In addition to a warm front
lifting north from the ArkLaTex Tuesday afternoon, this added
thermodynamic support to a setup with plenty of synoptic support
will spell out a severe weather threat for the Mid-South
tomorrow/Tuesday. Main area of overlap between a moderately
unstable daytime airmass (00Z HREF mean SBCAPE on the order of
1800 J/kg) and most favorable lift is eastern Arkansas, though a
low severe weather threat will be present pretty much areawide
Tuesday afternoon.
Current thinking is the next "round" of showers and storms will
start up shortly after midnight Tuesday, continuing to pick up in
coverage and intensity throughout the morning. Almost all CAMs
paint a broad swath of low dBZ returns through about noon on
Tuesday, especially north of I-40. This may actually help play
spoiler to portions of the area, depending on how well the airmass
gets worked over during the morning before the actual front
arrives Tuesday night. Some stronger pre-frontal convection looks
to be ignited by a shortwave ejecting along the stalled boundary
as early as 2PM Tuesday afternoon. Again, this activity will pick
up in both coverage and intensity as the day goes on, aided by
the instability boost from peak diurnal heating.
Aside from the severe weather threat of damaging winds and large
hail with Tuesday`s storms, flooding is going to be a prominent
concern. With the way the boundary is oriented in comparison to
storm motions, this is a very favorable setup for training storms.
Not only that, but 00Z HREF PWATs late Tuesday evening surge to
near 2 inches, which is above the 90th percentile of climatology
for this time of year. PWATs like this make for extremely
efficient rainfall producing storms with very heavy downpours.
This front will take its time getting out of here, leading to
another low end severe weather threat on Wednesday during FROPA.
The parameter space Wednesday is about the same again, so this
week`s weather is a marathon, not a sprint. In total, the forecast
additional QPF (not including what already fell Monday) will be
on the order of 1-3 inches. Areas north of I-40 are at highest
risk for training storms with heavy downpours, which could skew
these amounts to locally much higher; "worst case scenario" QPF
(90th percentile) is about 3-4 inches along and north of I-40.
Fortunately, this coincides with the area stricken by severe to
extreme drought and will likely be able to absorb a lot of water
before resorting to runoff.
After the front finally clears out Thursday, a cooler airmass
begins to build in. Highs on Thursday and Friday will barely climb
out of the 80s. However, long range ensembles are starting to come
into a little better agreement on a pretty highly amplified
midlevel ridge building in from the west by Sunday. Given that
it`s about to be October and not July, "highly amplified" means
about 589 dam with resultant temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.
In other words, it`s not a late summer heat dome by any means,
but things are leaning toward slightly above normal temperatures
well into the extended forecast.
CAD
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A series of subtle shortwaves will move across the Lower
Mississippi Valley into Tuesday night. Showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight and affect MEM,
MKL, and perhaps JBR, into sunrise Tuesday. There could be some
residual showers in the morning with some redevelopment of
thunderstorms late afternoon into Tuesday evening. Leaned towards
PROB30 for afternoon/evening convection due to timing differences
and trended towards the HREF.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Wetting rain chances will continue each day with widespread
rainfall returning on Tuesday and Wednesday with a cold front.
Rainfall totals are in the 1 to 3 inch range Tuesday night
through Thursday morning with probabilities for 2 inches or more
between 40 and 70% along and north of I-40. Conditions will trend
cooler and drier behind the front late next week.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CJC

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion