Springbrook, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

596
FXUS63 KDLH 042022
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
322 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm weather continues tomorrow before a cool down next week,
  with frost possible at times.
- Elevated winds combined with relatively dry conditions will
  lead to near critical fire weather conditions again Sunday.
- Chances for showers and storms increase tonight into Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Strong southerly flow aloft ahead of a low pressure sitting in
the western Dakotas will continue to cause much warmer than
average temperatures across the Northland. In addition, the
stationary front associated with the system will lead to
continuous rounds of showers and storms along the front in
northwestern Minnesota. Some storms could reach as far east as
the International Falls area, though they should stay to the
west overall. Storms will remain aloft due to the strong cap
aloft, but cannot rule out some small hail and an occasional
strong wind gust with these storms through the evening.
Though not quite as hot, temperatures will remain in the 70s
across much of the area tomorrow. Minimum RHs will reach as low
as 40% in the afternoon, and winds will increase to 20-25 mph
with gusts as high as 40 mph. These windy and relatively dry
conditions could lead to quickly spreading fires. Sunday
afternoon and evening, the front out west will begin to move
east through the Northland, leading to another chance for
showers and storms. However, low level dry air will keep much of
the precipitation from reaching the ground, and most areas
won`t see much more than a tenth of an inch of rain. Very little
instability and lingering convective inhibition keep chances for
strong storms very low. Again, however, an occasional damaging
wind gust being mixed down to the surface from a storm is not
out of the question.
A large upper level low system will bring cool, fall-like air
will dip down over the area with a surface high pressure Monday
and Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday night will reach
down into the 30s and 40s and below freezing in the Iron Range
Tuesday night. Frost is possible both nights, but especially
Tuesday night. This high pressure quickly moves through the CWA
and southerly flow returns Wednesday and temperatures once
again increase, though are only expected to reach the 60s for
the latter half of the week. Global models are hinting at more
chances for showers and possibly a rumble of thunder during this
time, but confidence is low of whether it will move right over
the area or mainly remain in Canada.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. A stationary
front sitting in northwestern Minnesota will lead to storms
later tonight and a few stray storms could move over INL tonight
into tomorrow morning with multiple waves of storms to the west.
LLWS is expected as well tonight for all sites except INL,
which may see a few hours of LLWS in the early morning hours.
Otherwise, main concern is increasing winds out of the south to
southwest throughout today and into Sunday. Gusts of 20 kts
today will increase to around 30 kts for Sunday.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Increasing winds out of the south to southwest is currently
affecting the South Shore with winds 25-30 kts reaching the
shore. These winds are expected to further increase tonight into
Sunday. Waves are also expected to increase over 4 ft along the
North Shore on Sunday. Gales are possible closer to the
afternoon and into the night, especially along the far northern
portions of the North Shore. Small Craft Advisories and Gale
Watches are in effect for all the near shore waters of western
Lake Superior. Winds will decrease and switch to the northwest
late Sunday night due to a passing cold front, which will bring
scattered showers to the lake as well.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Hot weather is expected today. Record high and record high
minimum temperatures are in jeopardy of being broken. Below are
the records and forecast temperatures for today and Sunday that
could potentially be broken or tied.
Record Warm Low Temperatures:
October 4: Forecast Current Records
KDLH:      57       58/1914
KINL:      67       60/1914
KBRD:      68       60/1914
KHIB:      61       54/1969
October 5:
KASX:      57       56/1975
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-144>148-
     150.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     LSZ121-140>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
     Sunday for LSZ140>143.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
CLIMATE...KML

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion