342 FXUS64 KOHX 012355 AFDOHXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 655 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 635 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Dry with warmer than normal temperatures through at least this weekend.
- Low chance (20-25%) rain could return by Monday/Tuesday next week.
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.UPDATE... Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Calm conditions persist this evening with mostly clear skies. It will be another pleasant night with temperatures in the low 60s. A strong high pressure system over the northeast will drop south overnight into northern Georgia and ESE winds at the surface will allow for drier air to be pulled into the area overnight. This will hamper any widespread fog development with only low chances of patchy fog in low-lying areas.
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.SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1018 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
The big yellow machine in the sky will continue drench Middle TN in all of its glory today as high pressure maintains its grip over the region. Afternoon highs will climb into the mid to upper 80s, which is still 6 to 8 degrees above normal. Rains of a week ago are becoming a distant memory as we start to crisp up again. I don`t think it`s going to be an issue today or tomorrow, but as we near this weekend without any rain, we`ll need to start watching fire conditions once again, especially with any afternoon mixing that could drop dew points lower than currently depicted in the NBM.
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.LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1018 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Temperatures are expected to remain above normal (which is 80 degrees at BNA and 73 at CSV this time of the year) through the rest of this forecast package. The downside is, the forecast is looking drier and drier. Extended guidance was hinting at the possibility that we could get a push of Gulf moisture Sunday night or Monday morning and now it`s into Monday night before that potential might rear its head (and it isn`t much). The NBM, as well as CPC`s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, maintains this scenario, too. So, I guess the best we can do is enjoy these comfortable days with highs in the mid 80s and dew points in a very manageable range.
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.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A surface ridge remains in the vicinity of Middle Tennessee this evening, so TAFs are VFR, with the exception of overnight radiation fog and possible low stratus at KCSV and especially KSRB.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 87 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 62 89 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 56 79 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 62 86 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 60 81 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 58 79 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 62 84 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 63 85 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 63 87 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
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.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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UPDATE.......Baggett SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Rose
NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion