Sperry, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

607
FXUS63 KEAX 242013
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
313 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain Showers Exit Southward This Evening
- Dry Conditions Next Few Days
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Primary trough axis is moving across the lower Missouri River Valley
this afternoon as 300mb jet streak moves toward the Ohio River
Valley. Mid to upper-level ridge has been developing with its axis
currently positioned from the northern Rockies toward the Sierra
Nevadas. Strong AVA regime over the Front Range and High Plains has
led to the development of a surface anticyclone. Subsidence in
southern Iowa and northern Missouri led to clearing in the northern
part of the forecast area this morning, while stratiform shield
lingered south of Hwy. 36. This allowed for stronger heating
northward today, resulting in a weak thermal boundary across our
north, and this roughly aligned with an already present H85 moisture
boundary across northern Missouri. After the main jet streak exited,
we did see some subsidence attempt to break up the cloud cover for
the southern two-thirds of the forecast area prior to noon. Heating
allowed for pockets of stronger boundary layer destabilization, and
resulted in isolated to scattered thunderstorms across much of the
area through the afternoon. The better shear environment is south of
Interstate 44 into the Ozarks. The convection in our area has not
been able to organize. A few heavier rain showers and few rumbles of
thunder remain possible through the remainder of the afternoon. No
severe storms expected. Most of the activity likely diminishes after
sunset. Skies are expected to clear in northern Missouri. It may
take time for drier air to come in. Therefore, there is fog
potential especially northern Missouri tonight through early
Thursday morning.
The remainder of this week and into the weekend will be
characterized by dominant mid-level ridging, with lower-level flow
southwesterly. Moisture transport will be fairly weak and no
substantial sources of forcing. Forecast remains dry for the
forecast area, and ensemble members are mostly dry as well, less
than 10% percent chance for measurable rain at most points in the
forecast area. Temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid
80s for highs with mid to upper 50s for lows.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
An hour or two more of MVFR stratus clouds expected across the
KC metro terminals, then should scatter out. VFR ceilings
expected to continue through much of the TAF period. Fog
possible in northern Missouri Thursday morning, and at STJ.
Winds generally light. Most shower activity has pushed south of
Kansas City.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion