South Bend, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

993
FXUS64 KFWD 230619
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
119 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front will move into North Texas Tuesday evening with
  increasing storm chances through Tuesday night across much of
  the region. Some storms could be severe with damaging winds and
  hail.
- Near normal temperatures will return Wednesday through
  Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday/
Convection associated with surface low pressure in western
Oklahoma and a shortwave trough ejecting over the Southern Plains
will largely remain north of the Red River tonight into Tuesday
morning. This area of low pressure will gradually shift eastward
across the state of Oklahoma during the day Tuesday as upper
troughing amplifies and dives south across the Rockies. This will
send our first notable cold front of the fall south through North
and Central Texas late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. We
may start to see some isolated shower activity northwest of the
Metroplex by mid-morning as low 70s dewpoints surge northward and
interact with this surface boundary.
By Tuesday afternoon, an area of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will
develop along and north of I-20 ahead of the aforementioned cold
front. Scattered deep convection is likely after 4PM Tuesday
afternoon across our far North Texas counties with an expected
southeast movement through the evening as the front pushes further
toward the I-20 corridor. Although the more impressive wind
fields will remain north of our forecast area, strengthening shear
as a mid/upper jet max enters the Southern Plains will promote a
large hail and damaging wind threat in this initial activity. The
severe weather threat will likely maximize in the 5-10PM timeframe
Tuesday evening north of I-20. Forecast hodographs are
highlighting a few-hour window for a low end tornado threat north
and northeast of the Metroplex where low-level winds remain backed
until the front arrives. However, there is potential that the
cold front advances quicker than currently forecast, undercutting
the storms and greatly diminishing the overall severe potential.
Nonetheless, plenty of elevated instability will likely support an
isolated large hail threat even behind the frontal boundary. The
general expectation is for storms to grow upscale through Tuesday
night and offer more of a localized heavy rainfall and gusty wind
threat as the cold front shifts southeast. Expect this line of
storms to approach the I-20 corridor and the Metroplex around
9-11PM, pushing into Central Texas and the Waco-Temple-Killeen
area after 2-3AM Tuesday night. Scattered showers and storms are
likely south of I-20 well into Wednesday morning as the region
remains downstream of the main trough axis and associated
synoptic-scale lift.
The cold front will push toward the Texas Gulf Coast Wednesday
afternoon with rain chances rapidly diminishing across the Brazos
Valley and our Central Texas counties during the latter half of
the day. Much cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday afternoon
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s behind the cold front.
Enjoy the fall temperatures!
Langfeld
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday and Beyond/
All rain should push south of our forecast area by Wednesday
evening leaving behind a much drier airmass and little to no rain
chances through the remainder of the week. Persistent east-
northeasterly flow will keep afternoon highs in the 80s through
the upcoming weekend as well. Overnight lows will finally drop
into the 60s region-wide with even some mid to upper 50s possible
across our rural locations west of I-35 Thursday and Friday
morning.
Langfeld
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/
VFR conditions will continue for the next several hours across
North and Central Texas. Intermittent MVFR stratus is likely for a
few hours near and after daybreak Tuesday morning at KACT scattering
out by midday. MVFR chances at the D10 terminals are below 20%,
but we will monitor how low stratus develops through the night.
Southerly winds at 10-15 kts gusting to 20 kts will prevail
through most of the TAF period. Toward the end of the TAF period a
cold front and scattered convection will approach the I-20
corridor and the Metroplex terminals. VCTS is possible by 03Z
Tuesday evening with actual FROPA arriving by 06Z Tuesday night.
It is possible that outflow from the evening convection shifts
winds out of the west-northwest ahead of the actual frontal
passage.
Langfeld
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  96  72  83  66 /   0  10  80  50   0
Waco                75  96  74  83  67 /   0   5  50  70  10
Paris               73  93  70  82  64 /   5  20  80  50   0
Denton              74  95  68  83  62 /   5  20  80  40   0
McKinney            75  95  71  83  64 /   5  10  80  50   0
Dallas              76  96  73  84  67 /   0  10  70  50   5
Terrell             73  94  72  83  64 /   0   5  70  60   5
Corsicana           76  95  75  85  67 /   0   5  60  70  10
Temple              73  96  73  85  65 /   0   5  40  70  20
Mineral Wells       73  97  69  83  61 /   5  20  80  50   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion