Sophia, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

127
FXUS61 KRLX 261017
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
617 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure builds across the OH valley and WV today.
An upper level disturbance approaches from the southwest tonight,
bringing showers and storms into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 615 AM Friday...
Previous forecast remains on track.
As of 153 AM Friday...
Areas of dense fog will gradually lift by mid morning, while areas
of low status should improve by late morning.
A positively tilted upper-level trough, extending from PA and WV
southwest across TN/KY, exits east while pushing a surface boundary
east along the eastern mountains today. Drier airmass will filter in
behind the front, while a theta-e gradient develops along the
mountains. These conditions will produce periods of clear skies
across most parts of SE OH, NE KY and most parts of WV through
tonight.
However, an approaching cut-off low pressure system is expected to
move east northeast across the Gulf states, approaching the TN/KY
valley tonight. A shortwave in the northeast periphery of this
low will inject along the aforementioned theta-e gradient to
produce showers and thunderstorms over these areas. This will keep
the highest probability for precipitation across extreme SW VA,
and the eastern mountains of WV late this afternoon and tonight.
This feature could bring up to 0.25 inches of rain across these
areas through tonight. Accepted NBM solution with these features.
Fresher airmass under light northerly flow and partly sunny skies
will allow for afternoon temperatures to reach lower 80s across the
lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s northeast mountains. With
dewpoints in the upper 50s, lows tonight are projected to be in the
upper 50s lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s northeast mountains.
Calm flow and mostly clear skies will allow for dense fog formation
mainly along river valleys tonight into Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM Friday...
Models suggest the aforementioned pesky cut-off low pressure
system stalling over the central mountains during the weekend,
before retrograding west Sunday night into Monday. This feature
could keep chances for precipitation during this timeframe,
with very low QPF expected. Daytime heating may enhance
precipitation coverage.
Temperatures will remain slightly above normal, but comfortable with
low humidity the farther west. Highs into the low 80s in the Tri-
State area, and 60s/70s along the mountains and foothills.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 AM Friday...
Key Point:
* Although it is very early, we are keeping a close eye on a
  potential tropical system approaching from the southeast by
  early or mid next week.
The forecast for early next week is uncertain. We could see a
lull in the precipitation Sunday night into Monday as the upper
disturbance moves away. However, forecasters are monitoring a
tropical system that may approach the Carolinas, and then move
inland Monday night or Tuesday. This could push significant
moisture into our region, bringing a renewed threat of widespread
showers and thunderstorms by mid-week.
Through the beginning of the week, temperatures will remain pleasant
and slightly above normal. Expect highs in the low 80s in the
Tri-State area, with the 60s and 70s prevailing in the mountains
and foothills.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 615 AM Friday...
IFR/LIFR conditions under dense fog and low stratus will gradually
lift to MVFR/VFR by 15-16Z this morning. Drier airmass will filter
in from the west to provide mostly VFR conditions this afternoon and
evening. The exception could be brief restrictions under a mountain
shower or storm.
A shortwave approaches from the southwest today, providing some
forcing along southeast WV. Meanwhile, a surface boundary remains
roughly along the eastern mountains today. These two features may
interact to support isolated to scattered showers more probable
along the central and southern mountains. This may include BKW, but
since confidence runs low, decided to keep this activity out of BKW
TAF for now.
Widespread IFR conditions are expected again tonight under dense
river valley fog.
Winds will be calm to light and variable through 14Z. Winds become
light with a north to northwest component afterwards. Winds become
calm overnight tonight.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog this morning may vary from
forecast. Timing of dense fog tonight may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                              FRI 09/26/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    M    H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR is possible at night with low stratus and/or fog through the
weekend.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion