Smolan, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

527
FXUS63 KICT 240736
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
236 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another round of showers with an embedded storm or two this
  morning, before the activity diminishes from west to east this
  afternoon.
- An extended mild and dry weather pattern is expected for the region
  beginning Thursday and continuing through middle of next
  week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show the mid/upper trough over
the Central High Plains early this morning. This feature was
beginning to move more quickly to the east and southeast. One last
round of showers with an embedded thunderstorm or two is expected to
impact the forecast area during the morning hours today before the
system moves east of the area this afternoon. Below normal
temperatures will prevail again today with highs generally in the
low to mid 70s. A drier, stable regime will overspread the area
tonight allowing lows to fall into the 50s. Low clouds should remain
off to our east and southeast.
Thursday-Tuesday...A mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify across
the central CONUS bringing mild and dry weather conditions through
the weekend and into next week. A shortwave trough is progged to
lift over the High Plains late in the weekend but any impacts to
sensible weather are expected to remain west of our forecast area.
Above normal temperatures are expected to prevail through the period
with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s and low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
The main impact to aviation in this TAF period is showers and
storms as well as low ceilings. There is a bit of uncertainty
with timing and coverage of showers and storms so went with a
PROB30 at all sites. These showers should shift from north to
south impacting central KS sites early Wednesday morning and
then south-central to southeast KS in the early afternoon. MVFR
ceilings are expected through Wednesday morning, returning to
VFR in the afternoon. Some sites may see IFR ceilings, but
confidence was not high enough to include at this time.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...GC

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion