Smithville, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

087
FXUS64 KEWX 010540
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1240 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm days and mild nights continue through early next week.
- Isolated showers are possible near the Coastal Plains this
  weekend into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Weak west-northwesterly flow at the 500 mb level continues through
the short term forecast period. Unfortunately, dry and warm
weather looks to continue into the first 2 days of October. Highs
will easily climb into the lower to middle 90s with dewpoints
falling into the lower and middle 50s each afternoon. This morning
Thursday morning will be quite comfortable. The NBM has actually
been a bit on the warmer side of the bias the last couple nights,
so will opt to do a 60/40 blend of NBM operational and NBM 25th
percentile.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Warm and mostly dry weather continues through the long term
forecast period. Cool, comfortable mornings will be followed by
warm, dry and somewhat hot afternoons for the first week of
October. There have been some rays of hope that the pattern may
shift to a more active one for early to mid-October, but for now,
things remain status quo with warm and dry weather continuing.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions through the TAF period under mainly clear skies.
Variable winds around or less than 5 KT for most locations,
becoming SE along the Rio Grande Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Minimum RH values between 20-30% will result in some elevated fire
weather conditions each afternoon, but with east to southeasterly
surface winds generally less than 10 mph, near-critical or
critical fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  67  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  65  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  65  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            91  65  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           96  68  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  64  94  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             94  64  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  64  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  66  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  69  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           97  69  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM....MMM
AVIATION...76

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion