Smithfield, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

340
FXUS61 KAKQ 192320
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
720 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains overhead tonight the tomorrow morning,
with a brief warmup ahead of the frontal passage tomorrow. A
backdoor front drops southward through the area Saturday,
bringing a return to seasonably cool and cloudy conditions this
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 720 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Patchy to dense fog is expected to develop across the area
  again tonight.
GOES Visible imagery mostly clear skies, high pressure and weak
ridging aloft prevail across the region. Winds are generally
light and variable this evening and above normal temperatures
are being observed, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. A
front is lingering to our north but has not made much ground
southward today. By tonight, this front will start to edge its
way closer to the forecast area, but still remain north of us.
Mostly clear skies and light winds will continue overnight, so
cooler temperatures (lower 60s, with some inland areas possibly
seeing the upper 50s). Recent model guidance continues to
patchy to dense fog developing across the area as abundance
moisture stays present through the night. The highest confidence
for wide spread fog is across NE NC and SE VA. This dense fog
could cause reduction in visibility to less than 1 mile.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 313 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- A backdoor cold front crosses the area on Saturday, dropping
  temperatures to near to slightly below average for the
  weekend with mainly dry weather.
Strong high pressure will build down into Quebec and New England on
Saturday, which will help push the backdoor cold front through our
area. Ahead of the front, local communities will remain dry and
likely see temperatures in the lower 80s. The northeastern part of
the forecast area, including the Eastern Shore and coastal locations
will likely only reach the upper 70s due to a combination of the
frontal passage and onshore flow. A slower moving front could allow
temperatures in these areas to reach the lower 80s, but have kept
upper 70s in the forecast for now. The front will be mostly dry, but
have maintained a slight chance of showers across the piedmont for
Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will cool off overnight into the
lower to mid 60s. Model guidance is suggesting that an open trough
or even possibly a weak low will develop off the Carolina coast
along the front and move NE out into the western North Atlantic.
Some models are more aggressive than others about the development of
the low, but have gone with only 15-20% PoPs for Sunday as that
seems reasonable. Seasonable temperatures are on tap for Sunday,
with highs in the 70s. If the low does over-perform, temperatures
could be a few degrees chillier than forecast due to increased
moisture and cloud cover across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 313 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry with near to slightly above average temperatures early
  next week.
- Rain chances and cooler temperatures potentially return by the
  middle and end of next week.
Ridging will build offshore of the SE CONUS coast next week, while a
strong upper low dives into the central Plains. Model guidance is
indicating that high pressure will return to south of the area by
early next week. This would favor a warming trend due to developing
return flow out of the south. Highs on Monday would rebound to
around 80F, with low-mid 80s forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rain chances return by the middle to later portions of next week due
to the approaching upper low and trough, which is expected to
advance eastward through the MS Valley during the middle and end of
next week as high pressure returns to the Quebec region. This will
bring slightly below average temperatures to region by the end of
the week.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Friday...
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the evening
into early overnight hours. Similar to last night, the development
of patchy to dense fog is expected, so have put in MVFR and IFR
VIS at all sites for now, though these may need to be decrease
to LIFR conditions as it becomes more evident that dense fog
will develop. At this time the highest confidence in IFR and
possible LIFR conditions are across ECG and PHF. While across
the other terminals confidence has increased on MVFR conditions
associated with patchy fog. Winds will remain light and
variable through tomorrow. As a cold front approaches the area,
winds will shift to the NE and start to increase.
Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions expected into Saturday outside of any
morning patchy fog. A back door cold front will move into the area
Saturday night with sub-VFR CIGs possible behind the front.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 313 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
- Benign marine conditions continue through tonight.
- A back door cold front crosses the coast early Saturday and this
will bring the potential for SCA conditions by Saturday night and
Sunday as high pressure builds to the north.
A large area of high pressure is situated just east of the area this
afternoon. With a very weak pressure gradient, the flow is very
light and around 5 kt. An onshore wind direction has developed near
the coast in response to some weak sea breezes. Seas are around 2
ft, with waves 1 ft or less in the bay.
A backdoor cold front crosses the coast early Saturday as 1030mb
high pressure builds SE near the QB/ON border. This area of high
pressure then builds across New England and Atlantic Canada Saturday
night into Sunday. This combined with an inverted trough/weak
surface low off the Carolina coast will result in a tightening
pressure gradient later Saturday night into Sunday. The initial wind
shift to the NE Saturday will only be ~10 kt, but will then increase
to 10-15 kt (locally 15-20 kt across the N) later in the aftn. By
later Saturday night and Sunday, the NE wind becomes 15-20 kt
(locally 20-25 kt) with gusts 25-30 kt. Seas build to 4-7ft, with 2-
3ft waves in the Ches. Bay, and potentially 3-5ft at the mouth of
the Bay. SCAs are likely for the coastal Atlantic (especially for
seas) as well as the lower Ches. Bay, lower James River, and
Currituck Sound. Confidence is lower in the middle and upper
Chesapeake Bay, but a period of SCAs are also possible here. The NAM
output continues to run at the high end of the guidance envelope for
winds due to it developing a stronger low, though the 12z/18 model
run was further offshore with the low and has lower winds. Local
wind probabilities for >25 kt winds gusts are 30-50% in the southern
coastal waters and very low (less than 10%) for >34 kt wind gusts.
The pressure gradient relaxes early next week as high pressure
builds S into the region and then nudges offshore by midweek. Seas
will be slow to subside Monday, but sub-SCA conditions should
gradually return and then prevail for the entire marine area by the
middle of next week.
A low risk of rip currents continues today for all area beaches.
While Saturday will likely start out "low", the increasing NE wind
should be enough to increase nearshore waves to ~3 ft. Therefore,
have increased the risk to moderate for Saturday. With nearshore
waves of 4-6 ft Sunday, will have a high risk at all beaches.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...HET/NB
SHORT TERM...KMC/NB
LONG TERM...KMC/NB
AVIATION...HET/NB
MARINE...AJZ/SW

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion