Skunkhollow, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

944
FXUS64 KLZK 030539
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1239 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
-Seasonably warm temperatures will continue through at least early
next week, with area high readings generally 5 to 8 degrees above
normal.
-More organized and widespread rain chances appear possible by mid-
week next week as a cold front approaches from the Great Plains.
-Cooler and more seasonal conditions should return by mid to late
 week next week in the wake of the aforementioned cold front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
H500 ridging was noted acrs much of the Cntrl US w/ amplified
troughing moving acrs the Wrn US. Locally, Ern US sfc pressure
continues to drive the fcst, w/ dry and warmer than normal temps
prevailing thru at least the end of the weekend.
Thru the end of the weekend and into early next week, guidance
remains indicative of the aforementioned H500 ridge deamplifying and
shifting Swrd over the Srn Cntrl US, w/ generally zonal flow and
passing embedded shortwave trofs prevailing acrs the CONUS.
Incrsg sfc moisture is expected acrs the region by Mon, and wl aid
in incrsg rain chances thru the early half of next week ahead of an
aprchg cdfrnt. Latest guidance continues to suggest this frnt wl
move acrs the Ozark Plateau during the Tues-Wed timeframe, driving
more widespread, but low chance PoPs for much of the FA.
In the wake of the frnt, which looks to shift towards a "back-door"
frnt as sfc high pressure settles over the Great Lakes, NErly sfc
winds wl prevail, ushering in much cooler and drier air over the
Natural State thru the end of the PD, w/ settled wx condns
resuming.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Expect VFR flight category for the entire forecast period from early
Friday morning through early Saturday morning. Expect surface winds
to be light and variable early Friday morning before becoming re-
established out of the south to southeast across most terminals
besides KLLQ which will experience surface winds become established
out of the east-northeast later Friday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     87  58  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         87  59  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       84  58  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    87  59  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  86  61  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     88  61  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      87  58  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  87  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        87  60  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     87  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   88  60  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         88  58  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      87  60  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...74

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion