Sinks Grove, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

957
FXUS61 KRNK 241101
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
701 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Broad area of low pressure over the central United States will
move slowly east with time, resulting in a daily chance for
showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
2) Warm and humid.
After some patchy morning fog, looking at another day featuring
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Large scale upper level trough to our west is littered with
embedded short wave energy...the short waves periodically
ejecting east and aiding in upward vertical motion. This
dynamic support coupled with daytime heating will result in
another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms with greatest
coverage along and west of the Blue Ridge.
Similar to yesterday expecting clouds/showers inbound from the
Ohio and upper TN valley to overspread the mountains this
morning, weakening initially, before restrengthening and/or
redeveloping this afternoon as daytime heating gives boost
to the CAPE and allowing for an intensity boost during the
afternoon. As for severe potential think environment supports
no more than marginal risk with MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/KG and
weak to moderate 20-30kt deep-layer shear, supportive of
isolated surface wind gusts that could cause wind damage along
with some small hail. Mean wind still seems too fast to support
excessive rainfall inspite of the increasing PWAT which is
advertised in the 1.5 to 1.80 range this afternoon...forecast
hodographs suggesting a wsw-ene cell motion of 25-30mph.
The upper trough to our west will be a bit closer to us tonight,
models suggesting chance for showers through the night and
potential for a rumble of thunder. As such maintained chance
through the overnight with highest pops over and west of the
Blue Ridge.
Temperatures today should top out 4-8 degrees above the seasonal
norm with warmest readings in the piedmont. Another mild night
is in store for tonight with minimums in the 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key message:
1) Widespread rainfall chances on Thursday will bring much needed
   rainfall to the area.
A positively tilted trough across the southern Great Lakes extending
southwest towards the central Mississippi river delta is expected to
provide the area under the influence of upper level forcing for
ascent on Thursday and Friday. Shortwave disturbances rounding the
base of the trough will lead to increased shower and thunderstorm
activity on Thursday and Friday across the area. The position
of the trough looks to be more supportive of severe thunderstorm
development on Thursday as mid level and upper level shear are
forecast to be at their highest levels this week. Not only will
shear values be at their highest, but a weak surface low and
associated cold front will be progressing to the northeast
across western Kentucky and West Virginia as well on Thursday.
This will lead to enhanced forcing for shower and thunderstorm
development areawide on Thursday, with best PoP chances
remaining along and west of I-81. Given the upper level shear,
and instability values forecast across the area on Thursday,
stronger thunderstorms look to be capable of producing strong to
severe wind gusts and small hail across the area. This is
supported by the Marginal Risk for Severe weather (level 1 of 5)
for a majority of the forecast area on Thursday. While storms
do look to be progressive, with 30-40 knots of shear aloft, some
training of thunderstorms may lead to localized flash flooding;
however, given the recent lack of rainfall areawide over the
least month to month and a half, any rainfall will be
beneficial. Current widespread rainfall totals are around 0.5 to
1.0 inches. Rainfall totals would need to be much higher to
lead to any flooding concerns at this time.
Temperatures will generally run in the mid to upper 70s west of the
Blue Ridge and low  to mid 80s east of the Blue Ridge each day
through the end of the work week. Lows overnight will be in the low
to mid 60s Thursday and Friday nights.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key message:
1) A cutoff low will linger across the southeastern US, which has
   increased rainfall chances over the weekend across the area.
A somewhat complicated forecast is leading to significant
uncertainty and spread in model data for this weekend and into early
next week. There look to be three main key players that will
determine how much rainfall the area will see during the
aforementioned time period. Global model guidance has remnants
from the upper level trough that will progress through the
eastern conus on Thursday and Friday cutting off across the deep
south by Saturday. The extent and strength of this cut off
upper level low is still uncertain at this time, as the GFS has
a weaker cut off compared to the ECMWF. This has lead to
significant spread in rainfall totals through early next week,
with nearly a 2 inch spread between the 25th and 75th
percentiles in widespread total rainfall forecast in the NBM.
The 25th percentile has nearly 0.25 inches, while the 75th
percentile has nearly 2.25 inches of widespread rainfall.
This uncertainty in model spread is not only due to the position and
strength of the cut-off low, but there are currently two tropical
disturbances that look to enter the western Atlantic late in the
weekend and early next week. Due to this uncertainty, the National
Weather Service will be launching extra balloons every 6 hours
starting at 06 UTC on the 25th to hopefully aid in creating a more
clear picture of the extended forecast into early next week. At this
time the three key players above will need to be further hashed out
by subsequent model runs to know for sure how things will further
develop across the Southeast.
Highs remain consistently around normal for this time of year, in
the 70s each day area-wide. The highest elevations could remain in
the upper 60s. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s to around
60 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Wednesday...
Satellite showing patchy dense fog this morning.
Aside from the morning fog, will seed gradual increase in
mid/upper cloud elements as upper level trough approaches
from the west. Daytime heating will produce cloud build-ups
by mid-day with scattered showers and thunderstorms for
the afternoon. Highest probabilities for storms are along and
west of the Blue Ridge, including KLWB, KBLF, KBCB,and KROA
after 15Z/11AM. Confidence is low for thunderstorms reaching
KDAN, but could still see showers nearby the terminal by the
evening hours. Main hazards for aviation today with the
showers/storms are strong outflow winds, reduced visibilities
in heavy rain, and lightning.
Expecting repeat fog situation tonight with areas receiving
rain having the highest probabilities for fog and/or low stratus
with impacts mainly after 04Z/midnight.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the
remainder of this work week as a broad upper level trough of low
pressure and associated surface cold front slowly tracks
eastward and across the Appalachian Mountains. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities are possible in the heavier storms, and some
patchy fog may occur during the overnight hours in response to
the increasing moisture. Thursday appears to have the greatest
coverage of showers and thunderstorms.  By Saturday, the cold
front should reach the East Coast but high uncertainty as to
whether drier air brings more widespread VFR conditions. Some
models are now trending wetter with low pressure stalling over
the area and bringing unsettled weather for the weekend in
addition to tropical concerns increasing near the coast.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...EB
LONG TERM...EB
AVIATION...PM

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion