Silver Creek Plunge, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

460
FXUS65 KBOI 060846
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
246 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...
Morning observations show temperatures cooling into the 30s and
40s across most areas. Patchy frost is possible in the western
Magic Valley where temperatures could locally approach freezing.
Drier low-level air will continue to move into the region today,
and with upper ridging building overhead, a very quiet weather
day is in store with little to no clouds and high temperatures a
few degrees below normal. A warming trend will commence Tuesday
into Wednesday with temperatures climbing around 5 degrees each
day, with highs eventually reaching the mid-upper 70s in the
lower elevations. Afternoon breeziness increases Wednesday
afternoon in Harney County into far southwest Idaho, with peak
gusts of 25-35 mph expected.
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
A much more active and unsettled pattern begins to shape into
the weekend as a large offshore upper low transitions into an
upper wave and shifts inland. Ensemble mean and deterministic
model solutions are converging on a similar evolution, with the
trough moving across Oregon on Saturday. A broad plume of
moisture will extend from the Southwest US, partially related to
what is now Hurricane Priscilla, with the interior Northwest
along the western periphery of the plume. This will result in a
increase in precipitation chances area-wide as early as Friday
afternoon, but more probable into Saturday and Sunday.
Instability appears limited at this time, which will limit
convective enhancement of precipitation rates. Probabilities for
more than 0.5" of QPF range from 50-70% over the Idaho
mountains, to 10-30% elsewhere. Snow levels will initially start
out quite high, but by Sunday decrease to 5000-6000 feet -
enough for light mountain accumulations. Temperatures will also
be significantly cooler, with current forecasts suggesting high
temperatures in the 50s for many areas on Sunday and Monday.
&&
AVIATION...VFR. Clear skies. Patchy valley fog building in through
mid morning, primarily in sheltered mountain valleys (near KMYL).
Snow levels 6000-7000 ft MSL, rising to 7000-8500 ft during the
afternoon. Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt. Winds aloft at
10 kft MSL: N-NE 5-10 kt.
KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: SE 5-10 kt becoming NW 5-10 kt by
Mon/21z.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Frost Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning IDZ016.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM....JR
AVIATION.....CH

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion