Siesta Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

557
FXUS62 KTBW 300650
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
250 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Drier air has been filtering in behind Tropical Storm Imelda which
is currently 205 miles east of Cape Canaveral. As Imelda starts to
make its turn northeast and push away from the state this drier air
will linger through Wednesday. This will limit shower chances with
only about a 20 to 30 PoP across West Central Florida.
As we go through the end of the week and into our weekend we will
see a boundary form along North Florida. This will bring moisture
back up again returning us to our more typical scattered showers and
storms in the afternoon and evening hours. Looking more closely at
Thursday and Friday we see our pressure gradient tightening which
will result in some breezy conditions across the area with sustained
winds around 10 to 15 mph. The pressure gradient will start to
loosen and winds calm down for the weekend.
By next Monday the boundary looks to stay to our north helping to
keep scattered showers and storms in place across the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period with winds out of the
north and northeast. Drier air will keep shower chances at a
minimum.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Tropical Storm Imelda which is currently about 205 miles
east of Cape Canaveral will start to turn northeast away from the
state. Winds will continue to be out of the north around 10 to 15
knots through Wednesday with little to no rain shower chances. As we
go through Thursday and Friday a boundary will form in North
Florida. As it does so we will see an increase in moisture and a
tightening pressure gradient. This will bring scattered showers and
storms back into the forecast and increase our winds to 15 to 20
knots.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Drier air will continue through Wednesday bringing little to
no rain across the area. As a stalled boundary sets up to our north
for Thursday and Friday we will see an increase in shower activity
and increasing winds. We will see afternoon winds around 10 to 15
mph. The gustier winds will be our only fire weather concerns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  75  90  74 /  10  10  20  20
FMY  91  75  90  74 /  20  20  40  30
GIF  89  73  90  73 /  10  10  20  10
SRQ  89  73  90  72 /  10  10  30  30
BKV  89  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  10
SPG  87  75  88  74 /  10  10  20  20
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Fleming

NWS tbw Office Area Forecast Discussion