Sherwood Forest, Massachusetts Weather Forecast Discussion

120
FXUS61 KALY 281817
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
217 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected to
continue through Tuesday. Then, a cold frontal passage will
bring change to below normal temperatures for the second half of
the week. Dry weather should continue through at least next
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:
- High confidence in dry weather persisting through the week.
- Above normal temperatures today through Tuesday trend below
    normal for the second half of the week into the weekend.
Discussion:
As of 2:15 PM EDT...Weakening coastal low continues to move off
to the E/SE of Long Island. At the same time, a second sfc low
is tracking near Hudson Bay, and its trailing cold front is
just now dropping S/SE into the ADKs (and is easily seen on
visible satellite with a band of mid-level clouds along the
front). With little in the way of moisture, we are not expecting
any showers with this frontal passage. We are already seeing
some wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range this afternoon, and winds
will likely remain breezy through the afternoon ahead of high
pressure building eastwards from the Great Lakes. Temperatures
are in the low 80s for many valley areas, and should rise a
couple more degrees through the next couple hours before they
drop behind the front. Daytime highs in the low to mid 80s for
most valley areas will actually be near daily record highs for
Sept. 28. Dew points remain elevated, mainly in the upper 50s to
low 60s, although this is still a few degrees below the NBM.
Tonight...The aforementioned sfc high builds eastwards from the
Great Lakes, settling overhead tonight beneath zonal flow aloft.
With clear skies and calm winds, very favorable radiational
cooling conditions are expected region-wide. We therefore went
several degrees below NBM guidance for overnight lows, which
will range from the upper 30s in the ADKs to around 50 for the
Mid Hudson Valley and I-84 corridor. Despite a drier low-level
airmass moving in behind the front, patchy fog is still expected
tonight in the typical river valley and near wetlands. The fog
could be locally dense in a few places.
Monday and Monday night...After a cool start to the day Monday,
temperatures warm back up into the upper 70s to around 80 for
most valley areas as the airmass aloft moderates. We will also
see increasing high clouds along and south of I-90 in
association with the tropical systems out in the Atlantic.
Fortunately, this will be the only impact to our area from
these systems. High clouds persist into Monday night. For
northern areas with fewer clouds, temperatures may drop quickly
after sunset, but given the clouds and the fact that the sfc
high weakens, we did not have enough confidence to deviate much
from NBM overnight lows, which will be in the 40s to low 50s.
Patchy fog will be possible again tomorrow night, but may not be
as widespread as tonight given the increased high clouds.
Tuesday through Wednesday...Upper-level flow amplifies, with
the upper ridge axis centered over the western Great Lakes
region. On the downstream side of the upper ridge, a strong
1034 mb sfc high will slowly build southeastwards towards our
region from Canada. This will push a second cold front
southwards through our region on Tuesday. While we will have one
more day of above normal highs Tuesday ahead of the front, the
front will usher much cooler air into the region. Lows Tuesday
night will drop into the 30s to 40s, and highs Wednesday will
only be in the mid 60s for the valleys with 50s in the high
terrain. Tuesday afternoon behind the front, and Wednesday
afternoon both become breezy with a strengthening pressure
gradient ahead of the incoming high. Winds could gust to 20-25
mph both afternoons, especially in the N/S oriented valleys
where flow channeling occurs. We also lowered dew points from
the NBM both afternoons. With breezy conditions and lowering RH,
we may eventually have to watch this timeframe for fire weather
concerns if there is enough drying from the recent rain.
Wednesday night through Saturday night...The surface high drops
south Wednesday night, settling overhead by Thursday morning. It
will remain overhead through at least Saturday, leading to a
period of continued tranquil weather. With favorable radiational
cooling conditions, we lowered temperatures each night. Some
frost will be possible Wednesday, Thursday and Friday nights
across the high terrain, with a freeze possible Wednesday night
in the ADKs and southern Greens. Since the frost/freeze program
ends Oct 1 for the southern ADKs, no frost/freeze headlines
will be issued for these zones beyond that date. Patchy fog will
also be possible each night as well. Temperatures will be below
normal Thursday with highs similar to those on Wednesday.
Friday will be a few to several degrees warmer. Temperatures
continue to moderate Saturday as the upper ridge to our west
undergoes anticyclonic wave breaking and a warmer airmass is
advected in from the N/NW. The CPC is expecting temperatures to
trend back to above normal with continued below normal precip
for days 8-14.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z/Mon, VFR conditions are expected through at least
05Z/Mon with occasional cloud patches possibly producing Cigs
of 5000-7000 FT AGL. There is a slight chance of some patchy
ground fog developing after 05Z/Mon at KGFL/KPSF, though
coverage may be less than recent nights in the wake of this
evening`s cold frontal passage. Any patchy fog should lift by
13Z/Mon with VFR conditions then prevailing.
South to southwest winds will veer into the west to northwest
and increase later this afternoon to 8-12 KT with a few gusts up
to 25 KT possible. Winds will become northwest to north and
decrease to 5-10 KT shortly after sunset, and light/variable
after midnight. Light/variable winds will trend into the
southeast to south at less than 5 KT by late Monday morning.
Outlook...
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Main
DISCUSSION...Main
AVIATION...KL

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion