Sherrill, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

138
FXUS64 KLZK 301731
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
-Sunny skies are expected through this weekend with a few afternoon
diurnal cumulus and possible longer.
-Mainly dry conditions will prevail through this weekend and
possibly longer.
-Temperatures are expected to be seasonably warm averaging roughly
 4 to 6 degrees for high temperatures through early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
High pressure continues to hold a firm grasp across much of the mid
south early this morning. Latest deterministic guidance shows
ridging will stay in place through Wednesday. By Wednesday night
into Thursday, a weak upper disturbance will round the periphery
of the upper trough over the east coast coupled with an increase
in surface moisture bringing a chance for an isolated shower or
thunderstorm on Thursday to parts of Arkansas. As previously
stated, confidence model solutions for Thursday remains low.
As the upper trough over the east coast moves off shore, an upper
low/inverted trough forms over southern AL/N FL sometime on
Friday into the weekend. The GFS solution shows the low/inverted
trough meandering northwest into the mid south by this weekend and
may bring some isolated POPs to the eastern part of the state.
The ECMWF solution shows the upper low/inverted trough drifting
westward along the gulf coast with no sensible impacts to weather
in the state. At the end of the upcoming weekend into early next
week, both the ECMWF and GFS solutions show a deepening trough
over the western US, but vary on the eastward progression of the
trough. This will allow south to southwest flow to set up over
Arkansas with continued dry conditions and light winds.
Temperatures will continue to be seasonally warm for late
September into early October averaging roughly 4 to 6 degrees
above normal for climatological highs each afternoon. Lows each
night will range from the upper 50s to lower to mid 60s each night
across the state through early next week. Dry conditions are
expected to persist beyond Thursday through the rest of the
period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conds are expected through the TAF period. Today, high clouds
will stream across the state from the SW associated with a weak
upper level system passing over the region. Clouds should decrease
in coverage overnight. Winds will be light, less than 10 kts,
mainly out of the NE at Cntrl/Srn sites today. Nrn AR may see
more Srly flow. Winds will be light and variable overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     61  89  64  89 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         61  89  64  89 /   0   0   0  20
Harrison AR       59  84  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    62  89  65  88 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  65  88  67  88 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     65  91  67  90 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      60  89  62  88 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  60  87  62  88 /   0   0   0  10
Newport AR        63  90  65  90 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     63  90  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   62  90  65  90 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         63  89  65  90 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      64  89  67  88 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion